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Contrarian Calls, Revisited

Each episode of this podcast seeks to produce a contrarian investment thesis, or at the very least a contrarian view on the state pf global financial markets.

How do these calls work out? It usually takes a good stretch of time for the proverbial jury to reach a verdict. Sometimes, a definitive assessment is impossible. Many predictions lack specific price targets or timing information, while others don’t even mention individual securities (or ETFs that can serve as proxies). And of course new information is constantly being revealed that could retroactively vindicate the call — or render it pointless.

Nevertheless, it is an informative exercise to look back at some of these calls in an attempt to see how they worked out. That is the point of this section of the website.

The Contrarians

  • Adds David Neuhauser’s comments at the bottom of the story. Presenting at the second Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference on June 3, 2020, David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners made the bullish case for Vista Oil (VIST). Vista, “the leading pure play company in the Vaca Muerta basin,” interested Neuhauser because of its strong leadership and management, the large ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • On a very early episode of this podcast (its fourth, actually), Mark Jones of Pragmatic Capital made the bullish case for AMC’s stock. At the time of the recording, May 2019, AMC had been in the doldrums for some time over concerns with its debt. It was trading around $15 per share after suffering for years. ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company, on the eve of last November’s presidential election predicted a ‘blue wave’ followed by a rotation into value stocks. “The Democratic turnout is going to be much larger than it was, and that’s enough right there to carry most of those swing states back to the Democratic side,” ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • Gabriele Grego of Quintessential Capital Management used the inaugural Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference to announce his short of Akazoo (NASDAQ:SONG). “We believe Akazoo is a scheme orchestrated by management to profit while egregiously deceiving investors,” Grego said during the presentation. “We see signs of very suspicious accounting manipulation,” including cash inconsistencies and “a total lack ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • Value Stock Geek, well known by his Twitter handle @ValueStockGeek, was bullish on shares of certain retail companies. Speaking on the podcast in June 2019, the guest said E-Commerce had not yet destroyed old-fashioned retail commerce. “The retail sector is now a hated and beaten-up sector and it’s mainly because of Amazon and E-commerce,” he said ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, this January said a market correction was long overdue. With risk seemingly everywhere, Stanton predicted a drop of 20% in the S&P 500 by the end of the first quarter, or March 31. “Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be ...
    Read more to find out what happened
  • Michael Kahan of hedge fund North Peak Capital Management was bullish on time share companies, identifying Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) as one of his fund’s key positions.
    Read more to find out what happened
  • In this podcast’s pilot episode last April, economist Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics challenged the prevailing narrative of the day: that the 3-month/10-year yield curve inversion would lead to recession in the U.S.
    Read more to find out what happened

We will be adding more entries to this often, so be sure to check back again soon.