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Tag: recession

Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
  • The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
  • What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
  • Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
  • “It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
  • For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
  • The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
  • What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
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Season 2, Episode 30: The Real ‘Melt-Up Is Still Ahead of Us’

September was a “fake out sell off,” says David Hunter.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his vision of a “parabolic melt-up” in risk assets that will presage the next market crash.

What we’ve seen since late March was not the real melt-up, Hunter says. Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final (and most dramatic) period of the rally. Then things get ugly.

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Season 2, Episode 22: Time to Build a Position in Semiconductor Manufacturers?

With Siddarth Singhai, Ironhold Capital

Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views of semiconductor manufacturers and auto parts suppliers. He also shares his bullish views on industry sectors in his native India.

Content Segments:

  • Singhai’s look at the macro situation with COVID (3:27);
  • The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry (5:59);
  • Long-term prospects are “fantastic,” and the macroeconomic environment should allow for the opportunity to build positions (8:06);
  • Electrical cars will provide a tailwind to auto manufacturers (10:40);
  • Background on the guest (13:52);
  • The most profitable industry in India (17:19);
  • Favorite ideas in semiconductor suppliers (27:04);
  • Favorite ideas in automotive suppliers (32:14).

More Information on the Guest:

  • Ironhold Capital is a value-based hedge fund in New York focused on leveraging both the Indian and U.S. markets. Its priority is to preserve capital, which is accomplished by buying high quality businesses with no leverage for cheap, followed by layers of risk management.
  • Website: IronholdCapital.com
  • YouTube Channel: Leaders in Business and Investing
  • Podcast: via Spotify and Apple Podcasts

Not intended as investment advice.

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