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Category: Podcasts

Season 3, Episode 9: Risk Versus Returns: Rethinking the Connection

With Chris Belchamber, Author of ‘Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road To High Returns’

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Chris Belchamber joins the podcast to discuss his book Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road to High Returns and challenge the axiom that market-beating returns are not possible without taking on large amounts of risk.

Belchamber has studied the most successful investors’ track records over decades. One thing they all have in common is prioritizing risk aversion and behavioral discipline. There are simple lessons to be learned for ‘novice’ investors.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

  • Most financial advisers have bought in to the idea that more risk will generate higher returns. This “simple line of argumentation is just wrong.” (6:39);
  • ‘Paradox investing’ and Radobank’s model (10:57);
  • The mindset of successful investors is all about risk aversion. The biggest problem facing investors is their own behavior (13:56);
  • ‘The optimization of the brain’ function: what it is and how to go about it without getting exhausted (17:23);
  • Background on the guest (23:05);
  • Belchamber’s meeting with John Meriwether (26:42);
  • Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies (28:52);
  • Red flags and other things investors should look for (33:07);
  • The current state of the economic and market cycle and why the second half of this year could be a lot different — and worse (38:29).

More Information on the Guest:

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Season 3 ,Episode 8: Archegos Capital and Using Behavioral Finance to Protect Yourself From Yourself

With Gary Mishuris, Silver Ring Value Partners

Gary Mishuris, managing partner and chief investment officer at Boston-based Silver Ring Value Partners, joins the podcast to discuss using behavioral finance to protect against mistakes in one’s own investing process.

The conversation quickly moves to Archegos Capital and whether this is a contained event that can be a buying opportunity — or whether it constitutes systemic risk for the market in general.

Later we discuss financial literacy and how investment managers face a real conflict that prevents them from being true fiduciaries.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
  • Behavioral finance: not just to identify investment opportunities (3:42);
  • The first step is admitting you have a problem (5:25);
  • The Devil’s Advocate Club (6:31);
  • Archegos Capital and the blocktrade controversy (14:19);
  • Is the Archegos Capital issue a contained event or something like the Long Term Capital Management crisis? Or perhaps a ‘canary in the coalmine’ type of thing? (21:40);
  • Central banks may not have the market’s back indefinitely and relying on the Fed may be (24:19);
  • Background on the guest (32:51);
  • The conflict preventing fund managers from being true fiduciaries (31:31);
  • The need for fund managers to train their investors (35:20);
  • Financial literacy and educating the broader public about investing (46:54);
  • The name of the fund (Silver Ring) is not a Lord of the Rings reference. The story behind how the fund got its name (50:03)
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Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
  • The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
  • What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
  • Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
  • “It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
  • For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
  • The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
  • What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
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