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Category: Podcasts

Retail Analysts Are Smarter, Brooker Belcourt Has Proof (Szn 4, Ep. 14)

This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack.

Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls.

Content Highlights

  • Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10);
  • The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53);
  • The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58);
  • What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03);
  • Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46);
  • Isn’t Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20)
  • Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11);
  • Deeper discussion on how Covey’s top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39);

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This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 4, Ep 13)

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.

Content Highlights

  • Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28);
  • Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line — and how much (5:50);
  • Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27);
  • What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09);
  • The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates — and is not just ‘jawboning’ the market (12:58);
  • This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40);
  • Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02);
  • Background on the guest and ‘origin story’ for Invictus Research (26:54);
  • What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23);
  • What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34);
  • ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) “has been a terrific place to look for shorts — quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament” (38:03);
  • Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed ‘breaks something’ and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);

More Information on the Guest:

Quick Highlights from our YouTube Channel

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No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

  • Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
  • The Fed’s talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is “just jawboning” (5:33);
  • The era of ‘buy & hold’ is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
  • The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
  • The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
  • Background on the guest (18:40);
  • What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
  • Why this may be a good time for this strategy — and a ‘turning point’ for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
  • Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think… (29:55);
  • What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

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Video Highlights

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