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Tag: artificial intelligence

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

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Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

With Peter Atwater

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Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

Content Highlights

  • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
  • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
  • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
  • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
  • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
  • Background on the guest (24:10);
  • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
  • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
  • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

More From Peter Atwater

Not investment advice.

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Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate (Szn 5, Ep. 16)

With Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital

Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

Content Highlights

  • Last September, X-Cubed’s credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest… (1:21);
  • AI tech stocks: It’s not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
  • Background on the guest (15:40);
  • The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
  • The bearish argument on office space and why he’s bullish homeowners (26:20);
  • Making use of mobile phone data and other ‘alternative’ data sources (30:00);
  • AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
  • Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).

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