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Season 3, Episode 4: Contrarian Stock Picks in Health Care, Tech, Travel

With Twitter’s Ze Contrarian (@ZeContrarian7)

A few segments of this episode contain adult language. Listener discretion is advised.

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

“Ze Contrarian,” a well-known and well-followed fintwit investor (Twitter handle: @ZeContrarian7) joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy and provide several stock picks for listeners.

Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)
  • Investment philosophy and view of the markets: it’s a brave new world with promoters on social media and elsewhere moving stocks (3:00);
  • Where are the opportunities right now? Things move quickly, but biotechnology and companies that are part of the “great reopening” are two fertile areas (9:17);
  • First idea: Odonate Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ODT) (15:33);
  • Second idea: MediWound (NASDAQ: MDWD) (18:41);
  • Third idea: Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) (23:33);
  • Fourth idea: Hostelworld Group (PINK: HSWLF). “There’s no better example for a contrarian investment than this stock.” (28:17);
  • Brief discussion of hostels, where the host unwittingly reveals just how much of a boomer he really is (34:56);
  • Background on the guest (45:26)
  • The contrarian indicator that allowed him to get out of the market ahead of the COVID meltdown last February (50:55);
  • How does he find opportunities? It’s all about building a network (54:37);
  • How to produce income? BDCs, or business development companies. Current favorite: Golub Capital (NASDAQ: GBDC) (59:32);
  • The coming boom in long-term travel and remote work and why it bodes well for the hotel industry (1:05:46);
  • The potential of Mexico (1:08:19).
Additional Material
Not intended as investment advice.
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Season 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments

  • How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
  • However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
  • What’s awry? Two things should have people’s attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
  • Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
  • Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
  • Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be “all in” on the bull market yet (24:48);
  • Central banks are setting up everybody’s portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
  • The “terrible” setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
  • What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
  • Vaccines could provide a “straight line” out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
  • It’s only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
  • The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. “I will bet you it’s 15…it’s going to scare the living daylights out of you again.” (53:39);
  • Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
  • For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
  • Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
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Season 2, Episode 35: How Bubbles and False Narratives Made Financial Markets

With Jamie Catherwood, Author of InvestorAmnesia.com

With the Dow Industrial Average hitting 30,000 on the day of this recording, revisiting historical booms and busts feels particularly timely.

Jamie Catherwood, the author of InvestorAmnesia.com and a self-proclaimed financial history nerd, is a perfect guide to this discussion.

We discuss booms in treasure hunting, bicycles, railroads, breweries, and of course tulips (which it turns out was greatly exaggerated. The guest debunks this).
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