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Tag: coronavirus

Corona virus, COVID 19

Season 2, Episode 23: The COVID Disconnect And The Coming ‘Melt Up’ In Markets

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

The evolution of media has led to a “disconnect” between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research.

“We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.,” says Abeyta. This, along with unprecedented liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, will lead to a melt-up in global financial markets.

Highlights:

  • The disconnect in popular political and economic analysis and the actual situation with COVID in the U.S. (4:38);
  • Look at the numbers in aggregate; they are clearly declining (8:52);
  • The war on COVID is almost over and the coronavirus could effectively be over “in six weeks” (12:52);
  • What does all this mean for investors? Look at gyms and movie theaters (16:07);
  • A simple options strategy to play the coming melt-up that looks a lot like 1999 (18:07);
  • Three contrarian views and why the coming melt-up will be the best investing and trading environment in a generation (24:48);
  • Background on the guest (27:33);
  • How do you get your ideas? (39:28);
  • The “V-word” and why it doesn’t matter and doesn’t work (41:10);
  • The case for Match.com (42:48);
  • “Shorting sucks” (45:04);
  • Asset management is a religion (49:21);
  • Short discussion of risks (51:12).

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 22: Time to Build a Position in Semiconductor Manufacturers?

With Siddarth Singhai, Ironhold Capital

Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views of semiconductor manufacturers and auto parts suppliers. He also shares his bullish views on industry sectors in his native India.

Content Segments:

  • Singhai’s look at the macro situation with COVID (3:27);
  • The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry (5:59);
  • Long-term prospects are “fantastic,” and the macroeconomic environment should allow for the opportunity to build positions (8:06);
  • Electrical cars will provide a tailwind to auto manufacturers (10:40);
  • Background on the guest (13:52);
  • The most profitable industry in India (17:19);
  • Favorite ideas in semiconductor suppliers (27:04);
  • Favorite ideas in automotive suppliers (32:14).

More Information on the Guest:

  • Ironhold Capital is a value-based hedge fund in New York focused on leveraging both the Indian and U.S. markets. Its priority is to preserve capital, which is accomplished by buying high quality businesses with no leverage for cheap, followed by layers of risk management.
  • Website: IronholdCapital.com
  • YouTube Channel: Leaders in Business and Investing
  • Podcast: via Spotify and Apple Podcasts

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 18, Transcribed: The Methods of a Short Activist, With Gabriel Grego

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge the prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. guests were not compensated for a period, nor day supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. This is our urge to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker,

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Gabriel Grego, Quintessential Capital Management. Thank you so much for joining this podcast. You are a short activist investor. There are probably few things more contrarian than being a short, especially nowadays when markets are rallying like crazy. You have a very specific process. And you only do a couple of trades a year, I think about three or four of these very high conviction trades. And you find these companies to short. And a lot of these have turned out to be outright frauds. And obviously, this approach has worked very well for you, as these stocks have traded down, in many cases to zero. So for you and your investors, obviously, this has worked out and so I’m very grateful that you have taken the time to come on this podcast.

Gabriel Grego 1:36
Thank you very much for having me. It’s a pleasure.

Nathaniel E. Baker 1:39
So yeah, so maybe start from the beginning. How does this — How does it start? Like, how do you go about locating these ideas?

Gabriel Grego 1:47
Well, I think the locating is one of the most important parts. And I think one of the reasons why I believe I have a high percentage of success as defined in terms of shorting companies that then end up going to zero within days or weeks is as much a matter of the selecting the right targets, as all doing the right type of research on the company. So it’s very important to find the right target, which inevitably entails rejecting a lot of a lot of good ideas, which for some reason or another are not good enough. So, what I chose to do at the beginning of this activity was basically to focus myself on what I called extreme corporate catastrophic situations, which typically means only looking at companies where there is total or almost total accounting fraud and/or where management is committing some kind of serious crime. And of course, this this situation must must be somehow hidden to the public and to the market. Otherwise, there is nothing to bet on. So the important thing is looking for this situation, which are by definition not easy to find, obviously, because management wants it wants to keep the situation hidden. And the key word here is flexibility and open mindedness. So you cannot stick to only one strategy or procedure to look for these kind of ideas because they’re very rare. And unless you have an open mind, you’re gonna have a very hard time finding them. So you need to use a combination of approaches. The most obvious approach is to come up with some kind of screening mechanism, like an automatic software say, that looks for companies which have certain red flags, that in my experience, and other investors’ experience have turned out more likely to have a risk of fraud.

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