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Tag: coronavirus

Corona virus, COVID 19

Season 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages

With Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board

Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.

Levanon’s analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a ‘new normal’ of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.

Content Highlights:

  • The ‘new normal’ of labor shortages (3:35);

  • The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);

  • Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);

  • How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);
  • What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);
  • Background on the guest (20:22);
  • The ‘work-from-home’ trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);

  • Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);
  • The guest’s primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).
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Season 3, Episode 10: The Case for Indian Stocks

With Ethan Widell, Ironhold Capital

Ethan Widell, senior analyst at Ironhold Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the case for Indian stocks.

The country is currently suffering under record cases of coronavirus, with horrific humanitarian consequences. This has understandably weighed on investors’ minds. But there are other transformations underway in India’s economy that make the investing prospects exciting in the long run.

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Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
  • The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
  • What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
  • Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
  • “It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
  • For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
  • The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
  • What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
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