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Tag: coronavirus

Corona virus, COVID 19

Szn 3, Ep. 28: The Market Doesn’t Care About Omicron or Inflation

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing.

Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse.

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world’s first $5 trillion enterprise.

Not intended as investment advice. 

Content Highlights

  • The market didn’t go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09);
  • Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won’t be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28);
  • Inflation is another boogey man (8:10);
  • The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy — and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39);
  • What about gold? (16:56);
  • The metaverse: It’s already here. People just don’t realize it yet (24:07);
  • Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29);
  • Oil and gas “could go to the moon” (39:52).

More Information on the Guest

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Season 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.

Hunter’s initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a ‘second-quarter swoon’ next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.

Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Hunter’s new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);

  • Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);

  • The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);

  • The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);
  • Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed’s hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);

  • China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);
  • What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);

  • Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be “March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids” (26:07).
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Season 3, Episode 24: The Lessons From Iceland’s Financial Collapse, From One Who Was There

With Jared Bibler, Author of ‘Iceland’s Secret’

Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book ‘Iceland’s Secret’ and his experience living through that country’s financial collapse in 2008.

It was a very dark period in Iceland’s history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice.

The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day.

If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society.

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