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Tag: hedge funds

Retail Analysts Are Smarter, Brooker Belcourt Has Proof (Szn 4, Ep. 14)

This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack.

Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls.

Content Highlights

  • Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10);
  • The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53);
  • The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58);
  • What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03);
  • Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46);
  • Isn’t Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20)
  • Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11);
  • Deeper discussion on how Covey’s top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39);

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No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

  • Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
  • The Fed’s talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is “just jawboning” (5:33);
  • The era of ‘buy & hold’ is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
  • The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
  • The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
  • Background on the guest (18:40);
  • What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
  • Why this may be a good time for this strategy — and a ‘turning point’ for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
  • Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think… (29:55);
  • What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

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The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
  • Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
  • What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
  • Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
  • What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
  • Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
  • Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

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