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Tag: David Hunter

Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 — the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Views on the bond market (1:31);
  • The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
  • Views on stocks (11:30);
  • Once consensus emerges that the Fed is ‘done’ it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating… (16:14);
  • Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields… (21:21);
  • How the ‘bust’ scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

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Season 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.

Hunter’s initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a ‘second-quarter swoon’ next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.

Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Hunter’s new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);

  • Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);

  • The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);

  • The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);
  • Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed’s hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);

  • China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);
  • What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);

  • Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be “March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids” (26:07).
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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: David Hunter on Last September’s ‘Fake-Out Sell-Off’

After stocks sold off last September (sound familiar?), Contrarian Macro Advisors’ David Hunter assured listeners the real stage of the melt-up in risk assets was still ahead. “This does not take away the melt-up scenario,” Hunter said of the September swoon, “In fact, this is kind of a fake out, sell off … I do think we’re going to regroup, and we’ll see the melt up later this year.”

See for yourself:

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