Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the ‘soft landing’ to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.
- An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
- The Fed is unlikely to ‘break more stuff’ as this spring’s banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
- Inflation will be more persistent and ‘sticky’ than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn’t leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
- When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
- The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
- Background on the guest (26:06);
- China’s driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).
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