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Tag: Chris Stanton

Season 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments

  • How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
  • However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
  • What’s awry? Two things should have people’s attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
  • Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
  • Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
  • Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be “all in” on the bull market yet (24:48);
  • Central banks are setting up everybody’s portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
  • The “terrible” setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
  • What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
  • Vaccines could provide a “straight line” out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
  • It’s only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
  • The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. “I will bet you it’s 15…it’s going to scare the living daylights out of you again.” (53:39);
  • Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
  • For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
  • Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: Chris Stanton’s Prediction for a 20% Drop in the S&P 500

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, this January said a market correction was long overdue. With risk seemingly everywhere, Stanton predicted a drop of 20% in the S&P 500 by the end of the first quarter, or March 31.

“Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be terrifying when it comes,” Stanton said in the Season 2 premier.

The S&P 500 was around 3,300 at the time of Stanton’s statement.

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Season 2, Episode 1: The Next Market Meltdown is Coming

Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton on the What, When, and Where

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.

There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.

Highlights:

  • “Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be terrifying when it comes” (5:43)
  • The “Phase 1” deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
  • A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
  • A “volatility-led sell off” is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
  • Where’s inflation? (26:34)
  • It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
  • Background on Stanton’s firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
  • The “origin story”: Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
  • What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com

Not intended as investment advice.

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