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Season 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth

With Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on “policy tremors” that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021.

(Barry’s dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).

Content
(Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp)
  • The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
  • The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving “too far, too fast” (11:43);
  • Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing “policy normalization” and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
  • The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of “sneak preview” of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
  • Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
  • Two details of President-elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
  • The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
  • If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another “speculative blow off” (30:50);
  • There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war “is pretty off-base” (33:00);
  • Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
  • Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)
More About The Guest
Not intended as investment advice.
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Season 2, Episode 39: How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places

With Artem Fokin, Caro-Kann Capital

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital joins the podcast to discuss his strategy of finding compounders in unusual places, specifically those listed on the “wrong” exchanges.

Content Segments

  • “What do I mean with the wrong exchange?” (3:42);
  • Why would a U.S. company not just list in the U.S.? Isn’t there more upside? (7:19);
  • Why the Australian exchange is one of the guest’s favorites for finding these companies (13:41);
  • What are the other criteria he looks for? (22:05);
  • What about valuation metrics for choosing an entry point? (31:06);
  • Background on the guest (35:05);
  • More information about his fund, which also focuses on special situations (37:18);
  • The focus has remained consistent, due to core competence (39:35);
  • One hidden gem, a portfolio holding, that he discovered recently: a software company with solid growth rate early in its lifecycle that trades in Australia — and is already profitable (41:19);
  • More discussion of the company, its customer base and how that has changed post-COVID (48:52).

More About The Guest

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Season 2, Episode 38: Buckle Up, The Bull Market is Just Getting Started

With Ryan Worch, Worch Capital

Thank you to the sponsor of this episode, Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views that even after the massive post-COVID rally in stocks, the bull market is just getting started.

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