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Szn 3, Ep. 28: The Market Doesn’t Care About Omicron or Inflation

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.

This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing.

Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse.

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world’s first $5 trillion enterprise.

Not intended as investment advice. 

Content Highlights

  • The market didn’t go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09);
  • Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won’t be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28);
  • Inflation is another boogey man (8:10);
  • The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy — and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39);
  • What about gold? (16:56);
  • The metaverse: It’s already here. People just don’t realize it yet (24:07);
  • Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29);
  • Oil and gas “could go to the moon” (39:52).

More Information on the Guest

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Szn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue

Content Highlights

  • The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
  • Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);
  • Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn’t have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced “was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with” (9:20);

  • Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);

  • It’s not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);

  • Background on the guest (22:33);

  • What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);

  • Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);

  • How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);

  • What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

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Season 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.

Hunter’s initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a ‘second-quarter swoon’ next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.

Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Hunter’s new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);

  • Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);

  • The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);

  • The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);
  • Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed’s hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);

  • China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);
  • What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);

  • Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be “March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids” (26:07).
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