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Season 3, Episode 15: Colin Lancaster is Fed Up!

The macro trader discusses his book and what to make of central bank policies.

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber or join our substack, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Colin Lancaster, global head of macro/fixed income at Schonfeld Strategic Partner Fund, joins the podcast to discuss his book Fed Up! Success, Excess and Crisis Through the Eyes of a Hedge Fund Macro Trader.

The book spans the period from October 2019 to June 2020 and includes the height of the coronavirus crisis. This features heavily into the conversation. We also discuss the Federal Reserve and his view of current markets.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)
  • What went into him writing the book? What was the impetus? (3:50);
  • Macro investing and the need to be a diversifier and disaster hedge (7:38);
  • What is he most concerned about right now in markets? (12:07);
  • What does an investor do in this market, especially with the Fed continuing to hold rates near zero? (14:30);
  • The Fed’s experiment is “dangerous” and the central bank has “very little credibility” when it comes to inflation (18:55);
  • Background on the guest (23:49);
  • The Fed’s role in creating and fostering wealth inequality is significant, despite its good intentions (27:48);
  • How to go about fixing this? Does the Fed perhaps have too much autonomy? (31:30);
  • The book is technically a novel and has quite a few characters. Are these fictional or based on real people? (36:28);
  • Alternative data; some ideas of what to look for (40:35).
More Information on the Guest
Not intended as investment advice.
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Season 3, Episode 14: Quick Call on Fed Meeting and Economic Outlook

With Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Company

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and state of the economy.

This was a quick call recorded over a phone line on Tuesday, June 15.

Content Highlights:

  • The Fed meeting that concludes June 16 and the coming discussion around the rolldown of QE (0:52);
  • Colbert’s reasons for being “grossly optimistic” about the economy (3:43);
  • The biggest concern is around the length of the current expansion (5:04);
  • The prospects of asset bubbles and why the ‘dot plot’ should see an increase from four to six or seven members of the FOMC who want to see higher interest rates (7:37);
  • Where does all this leave investors? (11:06);
  • What is driving the drop in bond yields (14:41);

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 3, Episode 13: The Rise of Retail Investors

With Gav Blaxberg, WOLF Financial

Gav Blaxberg of WOLF Financial joins the podcast to discuss his views of the retail investors who have been pushing stocks like GameStop and more recently AMC.

Blaxberg’s research on this phenomenon predates the GameStop brouhaha. He has reasons to believe retail investors have been gaining in power and will be a growing force to reckon with when it comes to major movement, especially among small cap stocks.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)
  • What happened with GameStop was not an anomaly. Expect more where that came from (3:47);
  • The trend did not start with GameStop, but can be traced to the ‘Kodak movement’ (5:07);
  • Institutions still have more capital and control more of public companies’ shares. How are smaller retail investors able to move these stocks? Even small caps? (8:23);
  • The return of retail investors, which hasn’t been seen since the heady days of the dot-com doom, can be traced in large part to commission-free trades (10:37);
  • Quick segue after the guest mentions he gets 9% APR on his blockchain-linked savings account — in USD (14:25);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to start WOLF Financial (20:42);
  • Twitter remains the most actionable social media platform when it comes to moving stocks. Everything else is a distant second. Yes, even Reddit (32:30);
  • So what stocks are popular on social media right now? It’s still growth stocks. Some examples (36:34);
  • What stocks have potential but don’t do enough (or anything on social media) and could boost their popularity with retail investors if they changed this? Some examples (39:34).
More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

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