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Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)Podcast episode cover art featuring Phil Pecsok

Pessimism’s Return, Trump 2.0 Opportunities, With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn, 7, Epsd 4)

Published March 4, 2025

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump’s various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest’s first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below.

  • Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
  • The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
  • The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
  • Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
  • Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
  • Why you shouldn’t buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
  • The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

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AI Stocks Can’t Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead (Szn 7, Epsd 3)Podcast episode coverart featuring Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital

AI Stocks Can’t Lead the Market Much Longer. Invest Internationally Instead (Szn 7, Epsd 3)

Published February 21, 2025

With Dan Rasmussen, Verdad Capital

Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.

Content Highlights

  • AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed… (1:51);
  • Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns — capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can’t produce the same growth as previous (6:03);
  • DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);
  • So if the ‘Mag 7’ and AI stocks won’t drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);
  • One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper… (15:24);
  • The guest’s book ‘The Humble Investor’ (21:37);
  • What can supply ‘edge’ in investing? There are some things. Legal ones… (27:10);
  • Background on the guest (33:02);
  • The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like ‘peak bubble’… (36:08);

More Information on the Guest

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Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise (Szn 7, Epsd 2)Podcast episode cover art feat Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise (Szn 7, Epsd 2)

Published February 13, 2025

With Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, Feb. 7 and released to premium subscribers the following business day. There are numerous other benefits to becoming a premium subscriber, which can be read on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
  • There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
  • The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change — and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
  • Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
  • Background on the guest (23:28);
  • Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in… (26:07);
  • The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech… (30:28);
  • Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.

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