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Tag: technology

Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024 (Szn 6, Episode 1)

Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it’s very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

  • Knapp’s outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period… (3:29);
  • Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
  • The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
  • How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March… (11:36);
  • Why bonds haven’t continued to rally this year (16:58);
  • The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
  • Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change… (28:35);
  • Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions… (36:40);
  • How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

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Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate (Szn 5, Ep. 16)

With Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital

Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

Content Highlights

  • Last September, X-Cubed’s credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest… (1:21);
  • AI tech stocks: It’s not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
  • Background on the guest (15:40);
  • The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
  • The bearish argument on office space and why he’s bullish homeowners (26:20);
  • Making use of mobile phone data and other ‘alternative’ data sources (30:00);
  • AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
  • Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).

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AI is Overhyped as an Investment, Will Only Worsen Inequality (Season 5, Episode 14)

Feat Simon Johnson, co-author, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’

MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, ‘Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity’ and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.

Content Highlights

  • Artificial intelligence’s default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21);
  • Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today’s advancements are no different (5:11);
  • Don’t expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17);
  • Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google’s Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12);
  • Background on the guest (24:26);
  • Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).

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