Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.
- There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
- The guest’s assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
- The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
- The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
- With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to “truly break things” in 2023 (13:05);
- Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
- One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
- Background on the guest (22:56);
- Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
- The outcome he’s expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).