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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)Episode coverart feat Daniel Peris

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)

Published March 27, 2024

With Daniel Peris

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host’s mic was a little ‘stuffy’ for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

  • Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
  • No, this isn’t about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
  • Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder… (18:30)
  • Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
  • Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
  • What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

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Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky (Szn 4, Ep. 35)

Published December 22, 2022

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.

Content Highlights

  • There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
  • The guest’s assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
  • The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
  • The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
  • With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to “truly break things” in 2023 (13:05);
  • Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
  • One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
  • Background on the guest (22:56);
  • Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
  • The outcome he’s expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).

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The Fed’s Inflation Battle Is Doomed to Fail: Fabian Wintersberger (Szn 4, Ep. 28)

Published October 12, 2022

Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy.

Content Highlights

  • The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48);
  • Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04);
  • Bond yields: We haven’t seen the highs yet (8:16);
  • Background on the guest (14:10);
  • The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38);
  • The situation in Wintersberger’s native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55);
  • Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country… (23:27).

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