With Peter Atwater
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Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…
- Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
- Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
- Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
- How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
- When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
- Background on the guest (24:10);
- Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
- Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
- Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).
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Not investment advice.