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Tag: behavioral finance

Investors Are Ignorant, Fade Their Conviction: Jason Shapiro (Szn 4, Ep. 30)

Published October 26, 2022

Jason Shapiro joins the podcast to discuss his trading strategy, based on the simple premise that most investors are wrong most of the time. This approach requires trades to be crowded, which is decidedly (and surprisingly) not the case right now — with two possible exceptions.

Content Highlights

  • Most traders lose money. Shapiro seeks to capture these losses by going against the crowd (3:11);
  • He does this by monitoring the Commitment of Traders report for extreme positioning, which he then fades (4:03);
  • The thinking behind this? The crowd is wrong. “It’s really that simple.” The discounting method is not price but positioning (6:11);
  • Shapiro monitors 37 different futures markets. Two examples of where this approach worked in the past (7:03);
  • Right now “I’m seeing some pretty scary stuff, because you don’t have anybody crowded” in major asset classes (8:24);
  • One possible exception: lumber (11:08);
  • Background on the guest (16:35);
  • Patience is a virtue, especially for contrarians (27:28);
  • “I have contrarian views on everything…that’s how I develop my opinion.” People are wrong because they want others to guide them (31:00);
  • The set-up in cryptos is “massively dangerous” based on positioning in Bitcoin futures. This sets Bitcoin and cryptos up for a major drop… (36:36).

(On this last point, Shapiro shared the following chart)

Chart of crowded crypto positioning

For More About Jason Shapiro

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Season 3, Episode 19: When Investors Become Gamblers — And Why It’s Happening Now

Published August 17, 2021

With William L. Silber, Author of ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business’

William L. Silber, author of the book ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,’ joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that individuals, including investors, can become reckless gamblers if they have nothing to lose.

Silber has a career dating back to 1966 in academia and Wall Street. His comments are pertinent in the present day of cryptocurrencies, the ‘retailization’ of options trading, NFTs, and meme stocks, among others. So is his recommendation (not investment advice) to reduce risk exposure.

Content Highlights

  • When people have downside protection and limitless losses, “they tend to become reckless and almost gamblers” (3:48)

  • Rogue traders and the skewed payoff that makes them go rogue (14:41);

  • What to make of the present day and investors’ collective risk appetite, especially regarding meme stocks? (17:32);

  • Background on the guest (24:55);

  • A valuable lesson learned at Odyssey Partners in the 1980s: what’s an exit strategy? (27:47);

  • Is this a time for investors to reduce risks and sell stocks? (30:26);

  • Precious metals and their place in a modern portfolio (36:52);
MoreSeason 3, Episode 19: When Investors Become Gamblers — And Why It’s Happening Now
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Season 3, Episode 9: Risk Versus Returns: Rethinking the Connection

Published April 15, 2021

With Chris Belchamber, Author of ‘Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road To High Returns’

Chris Belchamber joins the podcast to discuss his book Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road to High Returns and challenge the axiom that market-beating returns are not possible without taking on large amounts of risk.

Belchamber has studied the most successful investors’ track records over decades. One thing they all have in common is prioritizing risk aversion and behavioral discipline. There are simple lessons to be learned for ‘novice’ investors.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

  • Most financial advisers have bought in to the idea that more risk will generate higher returns. This “simple line of argumentation is just wrong.” (6:39);
  • ‘Paradox investing’ and Radobank’s model (10:57);
  • The mindset of successful investors is all about risk aversion. The biggest problem facing investors is their own behavior (13:56);
  • ‘The optimization of the brain’ function: what it is and how to go about it without getting exhausted (17:23);
  • Background on the guest (23:05);
  • Belchamber’s meeting with John Meriwether (26:42);
  • Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies (28:52);
  • Red flags and other things investors should look for (33:07);
  • The current state of the economic and market cycle and why the second half of this year could be a lot different — and worse (38:29).

More Information on the Guest:

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