Press "Enter" to skip to content

Tag: behavioral finance

Season 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty

COVID-19 and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, “Radical Uncertainty” and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content:

  • The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
  • It is “almost impossible to overstate” the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
  • Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
  • What’s an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
  • Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren’t the same thing (12:53);
  • Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
  • Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
  • Background on the guest (30:28);
  • What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
  • Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
Leave a Comment

Season 2, Episode 24: Math and Algorithms Are Overrated When it Comes to Investing

With Eric Chung, CIO, Lighthaven Capital Management

Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing.

“The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful … I think there’s been some pretty significant overreliance on these things,” says Chung.

Leave a Comment

Season 2, Episode 5: Global Crisis Investing Through ‘Psychological Arbitrage’

With Philip Reade, Helm Investment Partners

Philip Reade, founder and managing partner at Helm Investment Partners, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to crisis investing on a global basis.

Reade does not follow the “buy when everybody else panics” maxim. Instead, he searches first for a country that is emerging from a crisis and then buys that market’s largest, most liquid public equities. Helm Investment Partners seeks to capture shifts in the “psychological cycle” where the perception of a market changes.

Content:

  • Reade’s approach and how it’s different from value investing (1:12)
  • Identifying buying opportunities (5:35)
  • Timing the purchases is just as important as identifying the opportunity (15:30)
  • Some of the firms’ investments in 2019 (19:09)
  • When to sell positions (20:30)
  • Reade’s “origin story” of how he came to investing (23:51)
  • Where are the opportunities now? (30:30) Greece (31:29), Turkey (32:09), Chile (33:36), Pakistan (35:04)
  • China and the coronavirus (37:57)
  • Potential future investment targets in Egypt, Mexico, Argentina (39:25)
  • Why there is still upside in Greece (42:42)

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information about Philip Reade and Helm Investment Partners, visit HelmIP.com.

Not intended as investment advice.

Leave a Comment