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Tag: behavioral finance

Season 2, Episode 5: Global Crisis Investing Through ‘Psychological Arbitrage’

With Philip Reade, Helm Investment Partners

Philip Reade, founder and managing partner at Helm Investment Partners, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to crisis investing on a global basis.

Reade does not follow the “buy when everybody else panics” maxim. Instead, he searches first for a country that is emerging from a crisis and then buys that market’s largest, most liquid public equities. Helm Investment Partners seeks to capture shifts in the “psychological cycle” where the perception of a market changes.

Content:

  • Reade’s approach and how it’s different from value investing (1:12)
  • Identifying buying opportunities (5:35)
  • Timing the purchases is just as important as identifying the opportunity (15:30)
  • Some of the firms’ investments in 2019 (19:09)
  • When to sell positions (20:30)
  • Reade’s “origin story” of how he came to investing (23:51)
  • Where are the opportunities now? (30:30) Greece (31:29), Turkey (32:09), Chile (33:36), Pakistan (35:04)
  • China and the coronavirus (37:57)
  • Potential future investment targets in Egypt, Mexico, Argentina (39:25)
  • Why there is still upside in Greece (42:42)

For more information about Philip Reade and Helm Investment Partners, visit HelmIP.com.

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 3: News Headlines Are a ‘Subtle Fallacy’ Confounding Investors

Nicholas Reece of Merk Research says news has no real impact on the global economy or markets

January 2020 has been an eventful month. Geopolitical events and other exogenous factors have roiled global financial markets. In the end, they may not matter all that much where the trajectory of the global economy is concerned. In fact, they may not matter at all.

Nicholas Reece of Merk Research shares his thesis that there is a “subtle fallacy” that events in the news are important to the global economy and financial markets. This is due to evolutionary biography, behavioral biases, and the nature of the news business in the digital age.

In a wide-ranging conversation, Reece tells listeners how to cut through the noise to identify data that has real economic repercussions. One conclusion is that in 2020 (at least so far) to be a contrarian means being optimistic.

Content:

  • The “subtle fallacy” of news (1:32)
  • Humankind’s innate negativity bias (2:43)
  • So what news is relevant to the economy and to markets? (4:09)
  • Discerning the signal from the noise for investors (5:50)
  • Economic damage from the coronavirus (7:53)
  • “Unknown unknowns” (9:32)
  • Nick Reece’s “origin story” as an investor (12:41)
  • The changing public perception of the Federal Reserve (20:30)
  • Being positive is contrarian (26:21)
  • A short discourse on political commentary (27:25)
  • Favorite economic indicators that can supply contrarian signals (30:19)

For more information about Nick Reece and Merk Research, visit their website.

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