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iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF

Time to Get Defensive, Avoid ‘Magnificent 7’ Tech Stocks (Szn 6, Episode 3)

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.

Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47);
  • “There are things that people don’t see” (or at least don’t publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08);
  • One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59);
  • Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head… (6:05);
  • Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22);
  • Oxbow has been invested in ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently… (10:48);
  • Background on the guest (23:07);
  • What previous period in investment history is today’s market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer… (29:32).

More on the Guest

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Bearish Indicators Abound, With Downside Risks for Stocks: Ayesha Tariq (Szn 4, Ep. 15)

Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).

Content Highlights

  • The idea of a ‘Fed pivot’ away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01);
  • What about inflation having peaked? Won’t that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35);
  • Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers — but this won’t stop the Fed either (11:28);
  • Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57);
  • What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32);
  • Background on the guest (21:06);
  • What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19);
  • Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

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