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Tag: SHY

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
  • Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
  • Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
  • Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
  • The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
  • What to make of the banks? (21:14);
  • One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
  • The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
  • Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).

More About the Guest

Not investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 14: The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs

With Chad Glauser, Alpine Quantitative Management

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund’s strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

  • About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
  • The “real-world example” of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
  • How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
  • The current view of markets (5:46)
  • Why Alpine views itself as the “anti-quant” quant (9:04)
  • Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
  • How to get in touch (20:04)

Quick Video Highlight via Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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