Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.
Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds — corporates (8:47);
Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers… (12:02);
Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
Background on the guest (24:00);
Active management has its place (30:24);
Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.
Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.
The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
What to make of the banks? (21:14);
One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).
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Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income — and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around.
How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06);
Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25);
Centerfin’s take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44);
The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can’t just be exported anymore (9:48);
There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18);
Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55);
Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48);
There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36);
Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48);
Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46);
Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53);
Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that… (30:52);