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Tag: bonds

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)

Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Co.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
  • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
  • Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps… (6:35);
  • The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate cuts right away (10:05);
  • How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
  • Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
  • The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election (28:15);
  • Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
  • An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).

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Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024 (Szn 6, Episode 1)

Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it’s very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

Content Highlights

  • Knapp’s outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period… (3:29);
  • Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
  • The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
  • How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March… (11:36);
  • Why bonds haven’t continued to rally this year (16:58);
  • The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
  • Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change… (28:35);
  • Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions… (36:40);
  • How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

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Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)

Feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn’t quite buy that (1:37);
  • To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
  • Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US… (9:37);
  • Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more…(15:48)

More About the Guest

Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!

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