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Tag: interest rates

Season 3, Episode 17: Don’t Fear Inflation, the Fed is Right, 10-Year Yields to Drop to 0.5%

With Alfonso Peccatiello, The Macro Compass

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Alfonso Peccatiello joins the podcast to discuss his contrarian views on inflation, bond yields, and interest rates.

The guest doesn’t buy the inflation narrative entirely, believing credit creation has peaked. We are likely to see negative economic surprises and drawdowns in risk assets starting in the fourth quarter. The yield on 10-year bonds should peak at 0.5% due to a ‘Eurofication’ of the U.S. yield curve.

Content Highlights:

  • Why concerns about inflation are misguided (1:54);
  • The Fed is right. Inflation is transitory (6:37);
  • Demand for bank loans is “terrible,” despite extremely low yields (13:54);
  • Why do bond yields continue to drop? (18:16);
  • The bond market is saying growth and credit creation has peaked (23:24);
  • Why central banks’ digital currency experiments are potentially a game-changer (27:49);
  • Background on the guest (33:04);
  • The ‘four quadrant’ approach to macro investing and where we are right now (36:26);
  • The Fed tightening cycle should start in late 2022 and peak around 0.75% (47:50);
  • How low do we go on the 10-year this cycle? (57:00)

More Information on the Guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

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Season 2, Episode 19: Picking Spots in Volatility, Interest Rate Markets, With Chris Nicholson

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.

Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few things Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.

Content:

  • U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
  • Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
  • What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
  • Where to look in currencies (19:05);
  • Nicholson’s Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
  • Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
  • China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
  • Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
  • The portfolio manager’s concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
  • Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
  • How to trade these views (46:18);

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice

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