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Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and, you know, everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

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Season 2, Episode 19: Picking Spots in Volatility, Interest Rate Markets, With Chris Nicholson

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.

Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few things Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.

Content:

  • U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
  • Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
  • What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
  • Where to look in currencies (19:05);
  • Nicholson’s Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
  • Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
  • China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
  • Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
  • The portfolio manager’s concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
  • Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
  • How to trade these views (46:18);

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice

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Season 1, Episode 15: Emotional Investing With Denise K Shull

Identifying and managing emotional triggers can be vital to successful money management

Denise K Shull joins the podcast to argue against the platitude that emotions have no place in investing. Identifying and managing emotions does not only play an integral role in investing, but can in fact hold one of the keys to succeeding at all levels of money management — and elsewhere.

Denise was one of the key inspirations for the Wendy Rhoades character on Billions, the Showtime program that just completed its fourth season.

Content: The place of emotions in investing (0:20), examples of red flags (2:48), structuring a dataset of emotional reactions (6:35), gauging collective emotions in the market (10:00), Billions discussion (15:00). 

More information about Denise and The ReThink Group: https://therethinkgroup.net/

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