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Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip (Szn 5, Ep 8)

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he’s still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he’s watching — be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

  • Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
  • Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
  • The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
  • The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
  • Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however… (11:23);
  • Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
  • When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan — and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
  • Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
  • As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
  • Background on the guest (27:50);
  • Bel Air’s clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
  • China discussion and why there’s no need to invest internationally (34:48);
  • Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

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Cyclical Stocks to Outperform as Inflation Drops to 3.5%: Barry Knapp’s 2023 Outlook (Szn 5, Ep. 1)

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he’s expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year.

Content Highlights

  • Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18);
  • Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56);
  • Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50);
  • The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably — and not due to Fed policy (12:18);
  • There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47);
  • The ‘wealth destruction effect’ from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35);
  • One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59);
  • The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41);
  • The ‘higher for longer’ Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27);
  • Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37).

More Information About the Guest

Not intended as investment advice!

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