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Tag: David Neuhauser

Season 2, Episode 21, Transcribed: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery, With David Neuhauser

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Okay. David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners. Thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today. The economic recovery, the “V shape,” is effectively priced into markets. As we record this on Thursday, June 25. The S&P 500 is up well over 30% off its lows. It seems that there is very little that can upend this buying mentality on Wall Street from investors, whether those investors are people of the Robin Hood crowd or more of the larger institutions, which is another question for another day. But your views here are a lot more bearish. And you are anticipating an L shaped recovery, which is a bit of a misnomer because if it is an L shape, then it doesn’t really recover, does it? So, I’d be really interested in having you lay out your views here for us.

David Neuhauser 1:42
Yeah, for sure, Nate, and thanks for having me. I mean, the way you look at it as you have to still look at you know, markets is just like economies run in cycles. And if you look at the past decade, as we’ve known it’s been predicated on low interest rates which has caused you know, By central banks that has caused, obviously economic development and along with tax cuts, and and that’s where we’ve seen the massive amounts of stimulus, which has fueled growth for a number of years. All that’s great. We obviously seen now with covid 19, that that’s been up ended. And the fight that of course, we’ve seen massive economic stimulus from both government and the Federal Reserve. And that, of course, is helping propel markets. But I do think there’s two, you know, there’s two things you have to look at. One is the economy, as they say, and there’s one that there’s the markets, and from an economic standpoint, even with vaccine, which, you know, at a bull case, I would say you’re talking about 12 months or 18 months from now, you’re still going to look at sustainable, higher levels of unemployment, you’re still going to see a lot lower economic activity, you’re still going to see no just less overall activity in the economy in terms of retail in terms of Travel and Leisure in terms of purchases, and When you include that all in to where we’ve been to where we are today, and where we’re going, you have to look at it and say, you know, big picture, you know, we most likely have seen the best days behind us in the past, you know, five or 10 years and going forward, it’s gonna be a rough road.

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Season 2, Episode 21: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery

With David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a “L-shaped” economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come. 

There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.

Content:

  • The “best days” of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
  • What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
  • What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
  • Background on the guest (12:11);
  • How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
  • More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it’s not in shale (20:31);
  • Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
  • There will be a “massive reset” in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing “further grinding” to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
  • Neuhauser’s process for finding opportunities (27:46).

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Hebron Technology Shares Drop After Report At Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2

The Contrarian Investor Podcast, in partnership with ValueWalk.com and Breakout Point, hosted their second virtual conference today.

Shares of Hebron Technology (HEBT) sold off sharply after a presentation from Siegfried Eggert, CEO of Grizzly Research. “We believe the company is operating an insider enrichment scheme,” the presentation says. “All major transactions of the last year were announced and portrayed as arms-length, but we could link them all back to company insiders.”

HEBT opened around $20.80 per share on the NASDAQ this morning, already lower than yesterday’s close of $22.59. The stock sold off more sharply after Grizzly’s report, dropping from about $20.70 to around $17. At the time of this writing HEBT was trading more than 23% below yesterday’s close.

Update: Shares of Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) and Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) rallied after the presentation by Jonathan Boyar of Boyar Value Group.

Update 2: Shares of Vista Oil (VIST) spiked after David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners presented his bullish thesis on the company.

Update 3: At least one law firm has announced an “investigation on behalf of investors” in Hebron Technology.

The conference’s other presenters focused on long ideas:

  • Andreas Aen of Symmetry spoke about Danish “mini-conglomerate” North Media A/S, which trades on the Copenhagen stock exchange under ticker symbol NORTHM;
  • Neuhauser of Livermore Partners also presented Solgold (SLGGF)

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