Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.
- The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don’t expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14);
- Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates… (9:34);
- We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05);
- Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 — and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11);
- Background on the guest (22:02);
- Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03);
- A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild… (32:30);
- How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).
More Information on the Guest
- Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu;
- Substack: Stay Vigilant;
- CommonStock: Stay Vigilant;
- Twitter: @ExcellRichard,