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Tag: Federal Reserve

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive: Enrique Abeyta, HX Research (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack.

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

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Time to Get Defensive, Avoid ‘Magnificent 7’ Tech Stocks (Szn 6, Episode 3)

Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47);
  • “There are things that people don’t see” (or at least don’t publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08);
  • One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59);
  • Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head… (6:05);
  • Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22);
  • Oxbow has been invested in ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently… (10:48);
  • Background on the guest (23:07);
  • What previous period in investment history is today’s market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer… (29:32).

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