A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 — the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.
Not investment advice.
Views on the bond market (1:31);
The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
Views on stocks (11:30);
Once consensus emerges that the Fed is ‘done’ it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating… (16:14);
Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields… (21:21);
How the ‘bust’ scenario will play out (27:02),
To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.
Bonds are getting beat up again. The 10-year Treasury yield today rose to its highest level since 2007. It is joined by the 30-year, which also crossed the 2007 rubicon. The short end of the curve is hardly looking any better, with the 2-year also selling off — though at the time of this writing still a couple of bps below its level from 16 years ago.
Two things appear to be driving this:
Fears of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Inflation remains too big of an issue for the Fed to ignore and Jay Powell & Co. are forced to continue their hawkish path when it comes to monetary policy.
Fiscal concerns, specifically that escalating US budget deficits will create more supply of bonds than can be absorbed by investors.
The first issue is not new at all. It has very much been the driving force in markets for about two years. So much for our assessment that Fed fears had peaked. Maybe it will turn out to be early. Or perhaps just dead wrong. The point is, these concerns have not gone anywhere. If anything, they’ve intensified.
The fiscal concerns are a new wrinkle, clearly not helped by the developments in Washington. There is a lot of very dramatic language over this in the financial media. On some level the question does need to be asked as to who will buy all these bonds.
This brings us back to the Fed, as the central bank is the largest single holder of US treasuries. And therein lies the problem because the Fed is reducing its purchases of treasuries through quantitative tightening.
With the largest holder/purchaser of bonds effectively leaving the game (at least for now), it creates a big hole from the demand side of the equation. Mutual funds are the second-largest holder of treasuries. Maybe they will step in and buy, though surely many funds are already sitting on substantial losses in their bond portfolios. Can they keep buying the dip? Maybe?
Other major holders — depository institutions (ie banks), state and local governments, pensions, and sovereign nations like Japan, the UK, and China — are not exactly equipped to pick up the slack when it comes to bond buying. Banks are constrained by new restrictions brought by the bank failures this spring and don’t exactly have the balance sheet prowess to expand their treasury holdings. State and local governments can at best expected to maintain the pace of their treasury purchases. Japan and China have their own fiscal problems to deal with (and bail out, when it comes to China). The UK is facing a recession and can be counted out for its own fiscal issues.
That’s all worrisome and could indeed create more pressure on bond prices in the short term.
The following is an amended version of the Sept. 21 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700.
The Federal Reserve yesterday kept its key interest rate unchanged as expected but made enough noise about “higher for longer” to scare investors. Stocks and bonds sold off.
In the case of 2-year bonds, yields spiked to a level not seen since 2006 (see chart on left).
So clearly the market was not prepared for this hawkish language from the Fed. Meanwhile, all Powell really did is just reiterate what the inflation data is telling us, which is that there is more work to do before monetary policy can be loosened. Yes, the dot-plots did move a bit, but that just tells us how FOMC members feel right now. New data can and will change their views.
Whether they’re justified or not, there is a sense now that maybe Fed fears have reached a bit of a fevered pitch. Just look at the headline in today’s Wall Street Journal: “Higher Interest Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever.”
Ignoring for a minute that “forever” is a pretty long time, this take conveniently forgets that we’re talking about the same Powell Fed that flooded the system with liquidity during Covid and then kept rates too low for too long. The Fed may have to keep raising rates now (thanks to its own doing), but there is no way in hell this continues “forever.”
This is the kind of language you look for to indicate a turning point. And if fears of Fed are indeed at a peak, then fear of fixed income — specifically short-term bonds — could be at a peak as well. And that could be a buying opportunity for bonds. At some point the economy will slow, inflation will ease, and the Fed will cut rates. Then investors will pour money into bonds as they abandon the riskiness of the equity market. We aren’t there yet. But we’re a day closer.
The only way the Fed doesn’t eventually pivot is if we get stagflation. And even then: That will just force the Fed to choose between protecting purchasing power (price stability) and sending the global economy flying off a cliff or flooding the market with liquidity again to spur economic growth. If you’ve been paying attention to the Fed these last 30 years it will be pretty obvious what path it chooses — especially if it’s faced with this conundrum during an election year.
Here’s short audio where the host gets into this a little bit: