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Tag: economy

Season 2, Episode 21: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery

With David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a “L-shaped” economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come. 

There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.

Content:

  • The “best days” of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
  • What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
  • What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
  • Background on the guest (12:11);
  • How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
  • More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it’s not in shale (20:31);
  • Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
  • There will be a “massive reset” in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing “further grinding” to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
  • Neuhauser’s process for finding opportunities (27:46).

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 16: Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past, With Dexter Roberts

The author of “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism” discusses the ramifications of his thesis

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism.”

In Roberts’ view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China’s middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country’s population, remains well below the middle class — and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their “pivot” to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments:

  • The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
  • The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
  • The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China’s “factory to the world” model (9:21)
  • Authorities’ options are very limited (10:45)
  • Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China’s middle class are gone (13:10)
  • Background on the gust (20:15)
  • What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
  • Brief discussion of Hong Kong: “Don’t think that the protests are over.” (30:22)

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Season 2, Episode 12, Transcribed: The Next Stage of the ‘Market Melt-Up’ With David Hunter

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge the prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel, E. Baker

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
David Hunter, Chief macro strategist at contrarian macro advisors. You were on the show last summer in August if memory serves, and you told listeners about your idea that there would be a dramatic melt up that would be caused by central baank liquidity, injections and other measures. And anybody who’s been paying attention to markets in the last couple of weeks, could reasonably point out that this is exactly what’s happened here with the Fed, and other central banks, mainly the Fed, stepping in to combat the coronavirus impact, and unleashing all kinds of liquidity. So, I guess that would be the first question for you is where we stand with this. And if this is indeed the start of this melt up?

David Hunter 1:37
Sure. Yeah, I think this is definitely the start of what I think will eventually become a parabolic melt up into a secular top. And in all honesty, when we talked last, I guess, late August, I didn’t anticipate the coronavirus by any means and didn’t anticipate that we’d get down under 2200 on the S&P, I thought we might in fact in January, February, March. I was talking about January, February, early March, I was talking about a correction back to 3000, maybe 2900. But I certainly didn’t see the the cascade that we we got. So, you know, the coronavirus certainly affected the path. But my target of 4000 plus on the S&P, which I had last summer is still my target today. We had another leg down. It took us down to a deeper bottom. But I think it didn’t change the fact that we are going to have this final melt up into a secular top, a top that I expect to be the high watermark for decades to come.

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