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Season 2, Episode 19, Transcribed: Picking Spots in Interest Rate, Volatility Markets With Chris Nicholson

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for their appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Chris Nicholson, independent Portfolio Manager. based here in New York, you have a long career most recently at the hedge fund Iron Harbor Capital. And you have a pretty broad cross disciplinary look at assets and geographies. You did a stint in China I know, which I think is valuable now in the present day, considering all the volatility that we’ve seen, and everything that’s happened just from from the COVID crisis alone, but there are other broad forces at work. So maybe we could just start and just for you to get your, to get your views on the market on economies, and how you see things.

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Season 2, Episode 19: Picking Spots in Volatility, Interest Rate Markets, With Chris Nicholson

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.

Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few things Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.

Content:

  • U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
  • Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
  • What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
  • Where to look in currencies (19:05);
  • Nicholson’s Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
  • Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
  • China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
  • Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
  • The portfolio manager’s concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
  • Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
  • How to trade these views (46:18);

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice

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Season 2, Episode 1: The Next Market Meltdown is Coming

Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton on the What, When, and Where

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.

There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.

Highlights:

  • “Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be terrifying when it comes” (5:43)
  • The “Phase 1” deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
  • A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
  • A “volatility-led sell off” is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
  • Where’s inflation? (26:34)
  • It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
  • Background on Stanton’s firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
  • The “origin story”: Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
  • What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com

Not intended as investment advice.

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