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Tag: Peter Atwater

Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

With Peter Atwater

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Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

Content Highlights

  • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
  • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
  • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
  • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
  • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
  • Background on the guest (24:10);
  • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
  • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing ‘sentiment diversification’ (30:08);
  • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).

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