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Tag: commodities

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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Diamonds as an Asset Class: Concepts, Contrarian, Catalysts (Szn 5, Ep 22)

With Cormac Kinney, Diamond Standard

Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven’t become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.

Content Highlights

  • Why haven’t diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11);
  • Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45);
  • How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55);
  • What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06);
  • Diamonds’ correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33);
  • Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45);
  • Background on the guest (29:30);

More About the Guest

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The Economy’s Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors (Szn 5, Ep 20)

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the ‘soft landing’ to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

Content Highlights

  • An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
  • The Fed is unlikely to ‘break more stuff’ as this spring’s banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
  • Inflation will be more persistent and ‘sticky’ than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn’t leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
  • When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
  • The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
  • Background on the guest (26:06);
  • China’s driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).

More About Aperture Investors

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