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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

US Election ‘Black Swans’ Include Significant Chance of Political Violence (Szn 6, Epsd 20)

With Mike Blyth, Sigma 7

Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss ‘unknown unknowns’ facing next week’s US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
  • Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
  • Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
  • The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. “It’s a tinderbox. We’re waiting for the flame to be lit” (11:26);
  • What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
  • What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

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Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 — Should It Happen (Szn 6, Epsd 19)

With Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
  • What if Trump doesn’t win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
  • How it all might affect Mexico, the US’ largest trading partner (5:40);
  • The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who’s in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
  • However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities… (15:40);
  • Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve’s independence (19:38);
  • Don’t overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president’s term (25:44);
  • Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

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Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep (Szn 6, Epsd 18)

With Flip Pidot, American Civics Exchange

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump — and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day — without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page.

Content Highlights

  • What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
  • About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
  • Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
  • Background on the guest (23:05);
  • If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
  • Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

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