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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More: AJ Giannone, Allio Capital (Szn 7, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art feat AJ Giannone

Opportunities in High Yield, Private Credit and More: AJ Giannone, Allio Capital (Szn 7, Epsd 7)

Published March 31, 2025

AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Content Highlights

  • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

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Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Robert Smallbone

Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)

Published March 18, 2025

With Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh “blow-off top” is coming.

Content Highlights

  • Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
  • The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields — and interest rates (4:15);
  • European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
  • Background on the guest (12:46);
  • The view on gold and silver (16:11);
  • Crypto discussion (18:40).

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Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

Content Highlights

  • The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
  • Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
  • Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
  • Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
  • Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

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