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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell (Szn 4, Ep 24)

Published September 14, 2022

Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don’t expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14);
  • Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates… (9:34);
  • We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05);
  • Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 — and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11);
  • Background on the guest (22:02);
  • Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03);
  • A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild… (32:30);
  • How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).

More Information on the Guest

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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Season 2, Episode 14: The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs

Published May 6, 2020

With Chad Glauser, Alpine Quantitative Management

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund’s strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

  • About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
  • The “real-world example” of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
  • How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
  • The current view of markets (5:46)
  • Why Alpine views itself as the “anti-quant” quant (9:04)
  • Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
  • How to get in touch (20:04)

Quick Video Highlight via Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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