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Tag: China

The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X

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Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)

With Dr. Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page.

Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview — one where the US is no longer the sole superpower — the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.

And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.

Content Highlights

  • The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
  • China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It’s just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
  • The guest’s trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
  • One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
  • Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
  • Background on the guest (41:04);
  • Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
  • As Russia’s economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis… (53:03);
  • US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has “something like five years” before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
  • Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).

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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

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