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Tag: Scott Colbert

US Economic Outlook ‘Surprisingly Optimistic’ (Szn 6, Episode 2)

Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Co.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his “surprisingly optimistic” outlook for the US economy in 2024.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30);
  • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39);
  • Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps… (6:35);
  • The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren’t rate cuts right away (10:05);
  • How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US… (17:01);
  • Commercial real estate is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008… (24:36);
  • The guest’s take on the impact of this year’s US presidential election (28:15);
  • Top concerns start with deficit spending… (33:23);
  • An economist’s take on the AI revolution (39:28).

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Season 3, Episode 14: Quick Call on Fed Meeting and Economic Outlook

With Scott Colbert, Chief Economist, Commerce Trust Company

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and state of the economy.

This was a quick call recorded over a phone line on Tuesday, June 15.

Content Highlights:

  • The Fed meeting that concludes June 16 and the coming discussion around the rolldown of QE (0:52);
  • Colbert’s reasons for being “grossly optimistic” about the economy (3:43);
  • The biggest concern is around the length of the current expansion (5:04);
  • The prospects of asset bubbles and why the ‘dot plot’ should see an increase from four to six or seven members of the FOMC who want to see higher interest rates (7:37);
  • Where does all this leave investors? (11:06);
  • What is driving the drop in bond yields (14:41);

Not intended as investment advice.

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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: Biden Victory and the ‘Rotation to Value’

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company, on the eve of last November’s presidential election predicted a ‘blue wave’ followed by a rotation into value stocks.

“The Democratic turnout is going to be much larger than it was, and that’s enough right there to carry most of those swing states back to the Democratic side,” Colbert said last Oct. 28. “You’re not going to have enough pro-Trump voters to offset that Democratic wave.”

This would lead to “Democrats rolling this thing” and taking back the Senate as well as the White House. The biggest change for markets would be a rotation from growth to value. “It’s the combination of the election and a vaccine,” Colbert said.

Corporate America would be punished in the terms of higher tax rates, which would affect growth companies more than any other segment of the market. This would make growth stocks less appealing to investors. Value stocks would benefit from this development.

“If you’re looking for a contrarian play, I think it’s the rotation to value,” Colbert said.

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