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Corona virus, COVID 19

Season 3, Episode 4: Contrarian Stock Picks in Health Care, Tech, Travel

With Twitter’s Ze Contrarian (@ZeContrarian7)

A few segments of this episode contain adult language. Listener discretion is advised.

“Ze Contrarian,” a well-known and well-followed fintwit investor (Twitter handle: @ZeContrarian7) joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy and provide several stock picks for listeners.

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Season 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments

  • How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
  • However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
  • What’s awry? Two things should have people’s attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
  • Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
  • Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
  • Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be “all in” on the bull market yet (24:48);
  • Central banks are setting up everybody’s portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
  • The “terrible” setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
  • What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
  • Vaccines could provide a “straight line” out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
  • It’s only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
  • The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. “I will bet you it’s 15…it’s going to scare the living daylights out of you again.” (53:39);
  • Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
  • For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
  • Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
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Season 2, Episode 38: Buckle Up, The Bull Market is Just Getting Started

With Ryan Worch, Worch Capital

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views that even after the massive post-COVID rally in stocks, the bull market is just getting started.

Content Sections

  • The most appropriate historical parallel from a price-pattern standpoint may be 1999 and the massive “tech melt-up” that ended in 2000 (3:21);
  • “We believe the market is in this secular bull market — for various reasons,” particularly monetary easing. This should “supercharge” a move higher, much as in 1999 (5:35);
  • The similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s (8:40);
  • The Fed is “completely transparent these days.” They will be forced to raise rates at some point, but the markets may not stop rallying for a while (12:21);
  • Current excesses are nothing compared to those of the late 1990s. People are still spooked by what happened (16:44);
  • Background on the guest (22:06);
  • How he started his fund in 2008 (26:39);
  • How Worch Capital was able to avoid the February-March correction this year (28:54);
  • Why he still likes growth, and which sectors (34:54).
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