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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)Episode coverart feat Daniel Peris

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)

Published March 27, 2024

With Daniel Peris

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host’s mic was a little ‘stuffy’ for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

  • Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
  • No, this isn’t about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
  • Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder… (18:30)
  • Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
  • Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
  • What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)Cover art, Szn 6, Episode 4 feat Mark Higgins

Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

Published March 13, 2024

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

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Time to Get Defensive, Avoid ‘Magnificent 7’ Tech Stocks (Szn 6, Episode 3)

Published February 21, 2024

Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47);
  • “There are things that people don’t see” (or at least don’t publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08);
  • One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59);
  • Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head… (6:05);
  • Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22);
  • Oxbow has been invested in ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently… (10:48);
  • Background on the guest (23:07);
  • What previous period in investment history is today’s market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer… (29:32).

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