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Season 2, Episode 12: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’

Published April 14, 2020

With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final “melt up” stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a “secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come,” he says. After markets peak around late summer, a “global deflationary bust” will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

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Content: 

  • Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of “the final melt up” (2:23)
  • The downside target. Forget the “retest narrative” in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
  • Unprecedented leverage doesn’t leave policymakers much time (14:09)
  • Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
  • The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
  • Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
  • Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
  • How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
  • Discussion of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status (45:56)
  • Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Inaugural Virtual Contrarian Investment Conference to be Held April 20

Published April 1, 2020

Proceeds to Benefit Coronavirus Relief Efforts

The Contrarian Investor Podcast, in partnership with ValueWalk.com, will host its first-ever virtual investment summit on Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4 p.m. EDT.

A select group of investment professionals will be invited to present one (1) fresh stock pick each. These ideas must be contrarian in nature to qualify. Presenters get five (5) minutes to introduce their idea. They are then asked to talk through some details by Nathaniel Baker, host of the podcast. Finally, audience members can ask questions through the webinar’s interface. Presentation materials and contact information will be made available to participants.

A portion of proceeds will be donated to the CDC Foundation to help the emergency response to coronavirus.

Featuring the following presenters:*

The cost to attend is $200. Attendance is limited. First come/first serve.

Sign up now here.

Interested parties may email info@valuewalk.com or call +1-973-685-6523 for more information.

*preliminary list. More to be added

Read the full press release.

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Season 2, Episode 6: Defending Value, Shorting Selectively With Tobias Carlisle

Published March 3, 2020

Coronavirus will hurt earnings and interest rate may not help much

Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Fund LLC, is well known in value investing circles. He defends this method while also pointing to the short opportunities that have emerged recently.

Where the macro picture is concerned, the coronavirus is still front and center. Here Carlisle expects corporate earnings to be impacted and doesn’t anticipate central banks being able to help much. (This podcast was recorded before the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point cut announcement on March 3).

Highlights:

  • The case for value investing (4:28)
  • Coronavirus and the impact on supply chains (7:36) and how the market will react this year (8:47)
  • The fund’s short position in Tesla (12:58)
  • Favorite contrarian ideas right now, including short Etsy (21:25)
  • Exposure to energy (27:15)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

More information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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