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Season 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments

  • How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
  • However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
  • What’s awry? Two things should have people’s attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
  • Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
  • Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
  • Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be “all in” on the bull market yet (24:48);
  • Central banks are setting up everybody’s portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
  • The “terrible” setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
  • What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
  • Vaccines could provide a “straight line” out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
  • It’s only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
  • The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. “I will bet you it’s 15…it’s going to scare the living daylights out of you again.” (53:39);
  • Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
  • For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
  • Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
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Season 2, Episode 37: The Next ‘Blow Off Top’ is Coming

Brody Howatt, Bellator Asset Management says he’s getting ready to buy protection for a January sell-off

Brody Howatt of Bellator Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss his view that the market is getting closer to a “blow off top.”

The guest also talks about what it was like working for Steven Cohen at SAC Capital and Point72 before starting his own firm.

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S2E23 Transcribed: The COVID Disconnect and the Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge a prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 2:48
Enrique Abeyta, editor at Empire Fnancial Research, which is a publication house put together by Whitney Tilson last year, if I’m not I’m mistaken. But you have a lot of experience in investing, including managing your own hedge fund. And you have a lot of views that are quite outspoken and in many ways quite contrarian, which is why I wanted to have you on the podcast. And so thank you for having for taking the time. So I’m not sure where we should start because we did a previous call and I learned that you are very contrarian on a wide range of issues. So maybe let’s try this. What do you think is the market getting the most wrong at this time?

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