This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 4, Ep 13)

Published May 2, 2022

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.

Content Highlights

Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28);
Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line — and how much (5:50);
Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27);
What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09);
The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates — and is not just ‘jawboning’ the market (12:58);
This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40);
Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02);
Background on the guest and ‘origin story’ for Invictus Research (26:54);
What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23);
What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34);
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) “has been a terrific place to look for shorts — quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament” (38:03);
Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed ‘breaks something’ and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);

More Information on the Guest:

Twitter: @InvictusMacro;
Website: Invictus-Research.com.

Quick Highlights from our YouTube Channel

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No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)

Published April 25, 2022

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
The Fed’s talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is “just jawboning” (5:33);
The era of ‘buy & hold’ is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
Background on the guest (18:40);
What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
Why this may be a good time for this strategy — and a ‘turning point’ for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think… (29:55);
What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

For More Information:

LinkedIn;
Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat.

Video Highlights

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The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Published April 18, 2022

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);