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Tag: Federal Reserve

Szn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue

Published November 16, 2021

Content Highlights

  • The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
  • Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);

  • Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn’t have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced “was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with” (9:20);

  • Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);

  • It’s not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);

  • Background on the guest (22:33);

  • What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);

  • Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);

  • How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);

  • What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

MoreSzn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue
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Season 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust

Published November 8, 2021

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.

Hunter’s initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a ‘second-quarter swoon’ next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.

Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Hunter’s new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);

  • Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);

  • The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);

  • The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);

  • Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed’s hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);

  • China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);

  • What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);

  • Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be “March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids” (26:07).
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Season 3, Episode 22: The Transformation of the Hedge Fund Industry (Updated)

Published September 28, 2021

With Dominique Mielle

(Updates with transcript below. To get the transcript earlier, sign up to become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and other benefits).

Dominque Mielle joins the podcast to discuss the transformation of the hedge fund industry, as encapsulated in her book ‘Damsel in Distressed: My Life in the Golden Age of Hedge Funds.’

Mielle’s career in hedge funds spans three decades, a period of dramatic growth that has culminated with many investors today questioning whether it still makes sense to allocate to the asset class — to the extent that it can even be called an asset class.

The guest says hedge funds still have value in certain circumstances, but there are many forces working against them.

She also has some views on markets and even cryptos that are discussed in the back end of the episode.

Content Highlights

  • Her reasons for writing the book: very few women in hedge funds and the critical growth periods she observed in the industry (2:05);
  • So does the hedge fund industry have a future? (5:15);
  • What exactly has changed in the last 20+ years to make hedge funds less compelling? (8:02);
  • There is certainly less mystique around hedge funds, and the media now reports returns and other things regularly — something the host himself has been guilty of. How has that affected things? (13:54);
  • Okay, so what is the value proposition for hedge funds? (18:58);
  • Background on the guest (25:36);
  • What if a woman wrote a ‘Liar’s Poker’ of the hedge fund world? And why aren’t there more women in finance? (31:30);
  • The guest’s view of markets at present. Tapering is critical (40:23);
  • Her views on cryptocurrencies (44:47).

More Information on the Guest:

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

Not intended as investment advice.

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