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Tag: economy

Season 2, Episode 30: The Real ‘Melt-Up Is Still Ahead of Us’

Published October 6, 2020

September was a “fake out sell off,” says David Hunter.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his vision of a “parabolic melt-up” in risk assets that will presage the next market crash.

What we’ve seen since late March was not the real melt-up, Hunter says. Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final (and most dramatic) period of the rally. Then things get ugly.

MoreSeason 2, Episode 30: The Real ‘Melt-Up Is Still Ahead of Us’
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EXCLUSIVE for Premium Subscribers: David Hunter on What to Expect From Markets The Rest of This Year and Beyond

Published October 1, 2020

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast in this special episode released a whole week early for premium subscribers. To get it, sign up here for the (temporarily) reduced rate of $8 per month or $88/year.

Hunter in April predicted a dramatic rebound in risk assets. This was deemed outlandish in light of COVID, but has largely come to pass — though a bit short of his original target (4000 for the S&P 500 by Labor Day).

Now Hunter updates his view, with a rather shocking call: what we’ve seen so far was not the real “melt-up.” Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final stage of a parabolic “melt-up.” Then things get ugly.

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Season 2, Episode 28: Economic Growth Prospects Are Better Than Advertised

Published September 23, 2020

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics discusses the metrics pointing to continued recovery from COVID

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed.

Content

  • Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37);
  • The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17);
  • Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy’s future prospects (9:53);
  • The election and how that might impact things (11:50);
  • Background on the guest (18:31);
  • The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34)
  • Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44);
MoreSeason 2, Episode 28: Economic Growth Prospects Are Better Than Advertised
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