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Tag: economy

Season 3, Episode 10: The Case for Indian Stocks

Published April 29, 2021

With Ethan Widell, Ironhold Capital

Ethan Widell, senior analyst at Ironhold Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the case for Indian stocks.

The country is currently suffering under record cases of coronavirus, with horrific humanitarian consequences. This has understandably weighed on investors’ minds. But there are other transformations underway in India’s economy that make the investing prospects exciting in the long run.

MoreSeason 3, Episode 10: The Case for Indian Stocks
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Season 3, Episode 9: Risk Versus Returns: Rethinking the Connection

Published April 15, 2021

With Chris Belchamber, Author of ‘Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road To High Returns’

Chris Belchamber joins the podcast to discuss his book Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road to High Returns and challenge the axiom that market-beating returns are not possible without taking on large amounts of risk.

Belchamber has studied the most successful investors’ track records over decades. One thing they all have in common is prioritizing risk aversion and behavioral discipline. There are simple lessons to be learned for ‘novice’ investors.

Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

  • Most financial advisers have bought in to the idea that more risk will generate higher returns. This “simple line of argumentation is just wrong.” (6:39);
  • ‘Paradox investing’ and Radobank’s model (10:57);
  • The mindset of successful investors is all about risk aversion. The biggest problem facing investors is their own behavior (13:56);
  • ‘The optimization of the brain’ function: what it is and how to go about it without getting exhausted (17:23);
  • Background on the guest (23:05);
  • Belchamber’s meeting with John Meriwether (26:42);
  • Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies (28:52);
  • Red flags and other things investors should look for (33:07);
  • The current state of the economic and market cycle and why the second half of this year could be a lot different — and worse (38:29).

More Information on the Guest:

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Season 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust

Published March 24, 2021

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a ‘parabolic melt-up’ in risk assets that will be followed by a ‘deflationary’ bust.

Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
  • The coming ‘parabolic melt-up’: new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
  • What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell’s current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
  • Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
  • “It won’t take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry.” People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
  • For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the “final, vertical phase” of the melt-up (21:48);
  • The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
  • What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 7: David Hunter Says Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust
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