economy – Page 35 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages

Published August 30, 2021

With Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board

Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.

Levanon’s analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a ‘new normal’ of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.

Content Highlights:

The ‘new normal’ of labor shortages (3:35);

The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);

Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);

How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);

What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);

Background on the guest (20:22);

The ‘work-from-home’ trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);

Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);

The guest’s primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).

Season 3, Episode 18: Bubbles Lurk in Sovereign Debt, Financial Engineering

Published August 3, 2021

With Michael Ehrlich, Director of Leir Research Institute at New Jersey Institute of Technology

Michael Ehrlich, director of the Leir Center for Financial Bubble Research at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, joins the podcast to discuss his views.

Dr. Ehrlich has identified two areas of concern: sovereign debt and financial engineering.

This is not his only area of interest however, as Dr. Ehrlich is passionate about early-stage venture/angel investing, which guides the discussion in the second half of the episode.

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Season 3, Episode 17: Don’t Fear Inflation, the Fed is Right, 10-Year Yields to Drop to 0.5% (Updated)

Published July 15, 2021

With Alfonso Peccatiello, The Macro Compass

(Adds transcript to the bottom of this page. To get the transcript sooner, and take advantage of a host of other benefits, become a premium subscriber).

Alfonso Peccatiello joins the podcast to discuss his contrarian views on inflation, bond yields, and interest rates.

The guest doesn’t buy the inflation narrative entirely, believing credit creation has peaked. We are likely to see negative economic surprises and drawdowns in risk assets starting in the fourth quarter. The yield on 10-year bonds should peak at 0.5% due to a ‘Eurofication’ of the U.S. yield curve.