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Tag: OG contrarians

Season 2, Episode 12: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’

Published April 14, 2020

With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final “melt up” stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a “secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come,” he says. After markets peak around late summer, a “global deflationary bust” will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

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Content: 

  • Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of “the final melt up” (2:23)
  • The downside target. Forget the “retest narrative” in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
  • Unprecedented leverage doesn’t leave policymakers much time (14:09)
  • Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
  • The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
  • Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
  • Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
  • How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
  • Discussion of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status (45:56)
  • Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 23: Andrew Redleaf on Today’s Low-Rate, Low-Growth, Restricted-Access-to-Capital World

Published November 12, 2019

Andrew Redleaf is best known as the founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund that at its peak managed $6 billion. He joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that the world is increasingly bifurcated between those who have access to cheap capital and those who do not.

Content:
The contrarian take on low interest rates (2:33). Who has access to capital (5:16)? Small banks an outlier (7:28). The macro outlook (9:02). Andrew’s “origin story” (12:10). Cultural elements of financial markets (19:11). Biggest concerns facing markets and best ideas (23:20).

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 21: Peter Borish on Economic Cycles, the Case for Active Investment Management

Published October 16, 2019

Peter Borish is a founding partner at Tudor Investment Corp and current chief strategist at Quad Group. In his long career on Wall Street, Borish has seen multiple market cycles and met with and allocated to many hedge fund managers. He shares his wisdom with listeners.

Content:
The need for active management in today’s market (6:23). A contrarian view on ego (8:35). State of the economic cycle and deflationary pressures (10:29), political realities (14:26), concepts to keep in mind for the long run (16:31). What to look for in an investment adviser and hedge fund manager (20:46). The current state of hedge fund talent (22:57). Areas for concern in the macro picture (26:45) and possible inflection points (29:18).

Not intended as investment advice.

More information on Peter Borish and Quad Group: www.quadgroup.com

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