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Month: November 2019

Season 1, Episode 24: Investors’ Worsening Mood is a Bullish Indicator with Nick From Demonetized Blog

Published November 20, 2019

Counterintuitively, risk assets should benefit from deteriorating sentiments

The collective mood and risk appetite of investors may be turning more cautious, but this makes for a more optimistic outlook for risk assets. The author of the Demonetized Blog (and corresponding Twitter account) joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.

Content:

  • Investor surveys as contrarian indicators (2:40) and the “basic principle” that broader conservative positioning makes for bullishness (5:13)
  • Nick’s “origin story” as an investor (13:36)
  • Timing is everything. How much longer does this bull market have to run? (17:45)
  • Interest rates should stay low indefinitely (20:37) and the economy is not facing an imminent recession (22:00)
  • Prospects of a new president in the U.S. (24:12)
  • What this all means for asset allocation (26:05) and why investors should keep wary of inflation (28:25)

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 23: Andrew Redleaf on Today’s Low-Rate, Low-Growth, Restricted-Access-to-Capital World

Published November 12, 2019

Andrew Redleaf is best known as the founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund that at its peak managed $6 billion. He joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that the world is increasingly bifurcated between those who have access to cheap capital and those who do not.

Content:
The contrarian take on low interest rates (2:33). Who has access to capital (5:16)? Small banks an outlier (7:28). The macro outlook (9:02). Andrew’s “origin story” (12:10). Cultural elements of financial markets (19:11). Biggest concerns facing markets and best ideas (23:20).

Not intended as investment advice.

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