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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Season 1, Episode 14: Choosing Battles in Emerging Markets, With Pembroke’s Gregory Mariasch

Published July 31, 2019

Investment opportunities in China, Argentina, and Brazil

Gregory Mariasch, partner at Pembroke Emerging Markets, makes the case for his particular brand of long-short investing. Contrary to the prevailing opinion, there are opportunities in emerging markets that are less correlated to trade war issues between the US and China.

Stock markets in China, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico are discussed in greater detail.

Content:
Not your grandfather’s emerging markets (2:40), China’s economy and the trade war (5:40), stocks to own (13:20), the bullish case for Argentina (14:30) and Brazil (19:30), reasons to be bearish on Mexico (24:50).

Not intended as investment advice. 

More information about Pembroke: https://www.pembroke-em.com

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Season 1, Episode 13: China and the Everything Bubble, With Kevin Smith of Crescat Capital

Published July 16, 2019

Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion.

China heading into an economic downturn (2:00) and why its currency hasn’t faced any real devaluation, the situation in Hong Kong (3:50) and short HKD trade, the maturing economic expansion in the US (7:37), fiat currency debasement and bullish case for precious metals (11:35), background about Kevin (17:32).

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 11: US Expansion May Continue For Four More Years, Says Commerce Trust Chief Economist

Published July 11, 2019

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, disagrees with the prevailing consensus that the US expansion is at or near recession.

While growth may have slowed, the economy is in much better shape than is believed by many, with few near term chances of recession according to Colbert, citing leading economic indicators.

Indeed, “if we had to put a number on it…we would push it out towards as much as four more years” of economic expansion.

The market is underestimating the response by policymakers, including by the Federal Reserve, to ward off a slowdown. 

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