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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Save The Date: April 20, for the First Ever Contrarian Investment Virtual Conference

The Contrarian Investor Podcast, in partnership with, will host its first-ever virtual investment summit on Monday, April 20, 2020 at 4 p.m. EST.

A select group of investment professionals will be invited to present one (1) fresh stock pick each. These ideas must be contrarian in nature to qualify. Presenters get five (5) minutes to introduce their idea. They are then asked to talk through some details by Nathaniel Baker, host of the podcast. Finally, audience members can ask questions through the webinar’s interface. Presentation materials and contact information will be made available to participants.

Featuring the following presenters:*

The cost to attend is $200. Attendees can reserve their space here.

Attendance is limited. First come/first serve. There is an early-bird discount for the first 20 registrants that expires March 31.

Interested parties may email or call +1-973-685-6523 for more information.

*preliminary list. More to be added

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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: Michael Kahan’s Investment in Hilton Grand Vacations

What Was Said

Michael Kahan of hedge fund North Peak Capital Management was bullish on time share companies, identifying Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) as one of his fund’s key positions.

“Look, the stock’s been beaten up considerably,” Kahan said at the time. “When you have a stock that’s trading at 6 or 7 Ebitda multiple and a sub-10 P/E, you know it’s not beloved by the world.” This was a buying opportunity, and the company also had several defensive characteristics that were overlooked by the market.

Shares of HGV were trading around $29 when Kaman provided his comments.

What Happened

HGV traded mostly sideways for the next two months. Then, on Aug. 19 the New York Post reported that Leon Black’s Apollo Global Management was in talks to buy the company “for as much as $36 per share.”

Predictably, the stock popped on the news:

Hilton Grand Vacations stock price chart
Price chart of Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) stock, 2019 to 2020

Other news reports soon followed, adding to the Post’s story. HGV was exploring a sale, Reuters reported Aug. 29. The company was attracting bids of $40 per share, Bloomberg reported in October. HGV reached a 52-week high of $36.56 per share in November.

By that point, North Peak had sold its stake. “We’re no longer involved in Hilton Grand Vacations,” managing partner Jeremy Kahan (Michael’s brother) said in an interview on Feb. 20. The firm exited around $36 per share after it became clear the company would be sold, he said.

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