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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Season 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil

With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com

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Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.

The guest also provides his favorite stocks — all portfolio holdings of his — for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

  • Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);

  • What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);

  • Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
  • The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);
  • Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” (25:28);

  • Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);

  • $100/barrel oil is a “realistic scenario” and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);

  • The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. — this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).

More Information on the Guest

Special Offer for Listeners

  • Subscribe to ValuePlays at the original rate (discount of 63% over current prices). The guest discusses specifics of the service starting at (32:04).

Video Highlights

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Season 3, Episode 22: The Transformation of the Hedge Fund Industry (Updated)

With Dominique Mielle

(Updates with transcript below. To get the transcript earlier, sign up to become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and other benefits).

Dominque Mielle joins the podcast to discuss the transformation of the hedge fund industry, as encapsulated in her book ‘Damsel in Distressed: My Life in the Golden Age of Hedge Funds.’

Mielle’s career in hedge funds spans three decades, a period of dramatic growth that has culminated with many investors today questioning whether it still makes sense to allocate to the asset class — to the extent that it can even be called an asset class.

The guest says hedge funds still have value in certain circumstances, but there are many forces working against them.

She also has some views on markets and even cryptos that are discussed in the back end of the episode.

Content Highlights

  • Her reasons for writing the book: very few women in hedge funds and the critical growth periods she observed in the industry (2:05);
  • So does the hedge fund industry have a future? (5:15);
  • What exactly has changed in the last 20+ years to make hedge funds less compelling? (8:02);
  • There is certainly less mystique around hedge funds, and the media now reports returns and other things regularly — something the host himself has been guilty of. How has that affected things? (13:54);
  • Okay, so what is the value proposition for hedge funds? (18:58);
  • Background on the guest (25:36);
  • What if a woman wrote a ‘Liar’s Poker’ of the hedge fund world? And why aren’t there more women in finance? (31:30);
  • The guest’s view of markets at present. Tapering is critical (40:23);
  • Her views on cryptocurrencies (44:47).

More Information on the Guest:

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 3, Episode 21: Dangers Lurk in Market Structure’s Changing Dynamics (Updated)

With Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

(Updates with transcript below. To get the transcript earlier, sign up to become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and other benefits).

Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss the changing dynamics of market structure and how these are creating the potential for havoc.

Content Highlights:

  • Market structure: what it means and how it has changed (3:30);

  • How passive investing pools are changing the equation (6:26);

  • How Tesla (TSLA) is the perfect case study for this phenomenon (8:39);
  • The Fed’s impact when it comes to the bond market. This has ripple effect (13:02)

  • The interest rate and inflation outlook in the U.S. (15:34);
  • Background on the guest (20:55);

  • Passive investing has caused a host of confusing signals where the market cycle is concerned (24:37);
  • Business cycles are still alive and well, and this can of course impact the market. Where that stands today (30:05);

  • Market ‘skew’ is dramatically higher and chances of a collapse are increasing. “The market senses something is wrong.” (34:31).
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