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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Season 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth

Published January 21, 2021

With Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on “policy tremors” that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021.

(Barry’s dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).

Content
(Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp)
  • The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
  • The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving “too far, too fast” (11:43);
  • Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing “policy normalization” and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
  • The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of “sneak preview” of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
  • Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
  • Two details of President-elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
  • The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
  • If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another “speculative blow off” (30:50);
  • There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war “is pretty off-base” (33:00);
  • Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
  • Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)
MoreSeason 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth
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Three (3) Long Stock Ideas from Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference V

Published January 13, 2021

Attendees heard three exclusive stock ideas at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference V on Dec. 17. Presentations and recordings were made available to attendees but are now being released to the general public. The next iteration of the Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference will be held next month. Tickets are available through our subscription plan.

  • Matt Zabloski of Delbrook Capital presented on Torex Gold Resources, which trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under ticker symbol TXG and in the U.S. under TORXF on the pink sheets. “At the current spot gold price, TXG is trading at half the value of its peers,” making for the widest point ever for the implied discount to spot gold. “We believe this valuation gap will close in the coming months.” Read the presentation here or watch the video below.

  • Christian Putz of ARR Investment Partners gave a presentation on S&T AG, an Austrian “internet-of-things and Industry 4.0” company. S&T trades on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under ticker symbol SANT. Read the presentation.

  • Sean Stannard-Stockton of Ensemble Capital presented on First American Financial (NYSE:FAF). Read the presentation here or watch the video below.

This page will update with other videos so be sure to check back.

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Season 2, Episode 39: How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places

Published December 31, 2020

With Artem Fokin, Caro-Kann Capital

Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital joins the podcast to discuss his strategy of finding compounders in unusual places, specifically those listed on the “wrong” exchanges.

Content Segments

  • “What do I mean with the wrong exchange?” (3:42);
  • Why would a U.S. company not just list in the U.S.? Isn’t there more upside? (7:19);
  • Why the Australian exchange is one of the guest’s favorites for finding these companies (13:41);
  • What are the other criteria he looks for? (22:05);
  • What about valuation metrics for choosing an entry point? (31:06);
  • Background on the guest (35:05);
  • More information about his fund, which also focuses on special situations (37:18);
  • The focus has remained consistent, due to core competence (39:35);
  • One hidden gem, a portfolio holding, that he discovered recently: a software company with solid growth rate early in its lifecycle that trades in Australia — and is already profitable (41:19);
  • More discussion of the company, its customer base and how that has changed post-COVID (48:52).
MoreSeason 2, Episode 39: How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places
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