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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

The Bear Market Returns

Published August 22, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Aug. 22 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Stock futures are selling off in Monday’s pre-market, continuing the trend that started early Friday with the crypto flash crash.

Meme stocks are seeing the worst of it, with AMC Entertainment (AMC) dropping more than 30% ahead of the new APE listing. Shares of GameStop (GME) and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are down multiple percent as well.

There is once again no clear catalyst for the move downward. There have not been any new developments with the Fed, nor new earnings or economic data that could have caused this.

There may be concerns ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which starts Thursday. Before that we’ll get some earnings, though frankly last week’s retailer earnings were probably more important. Friday is Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole and the PCE Deflator to provide some more intel on inflation.

Or maybe the bear market is back? There doesn’t always have to be a clear catalyst for investors to dump risk assets. Maybe the bear never left. Bear markets do have rallies, sometimes quite significant ones.

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China Concerns Cloud Retail Earnings Week

Published August 15, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Aug. 15 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Some bad economic news out of China has weighed on risk sentiment overnight. The country’s central bank responded with a surprise rate cut. The impact is mostly limited to commodities so far, with WTI crude oil down 4% and copper off 2% in early Monday trading.

Starting tomorrow (Tuesday), the big box retailers will report earnings, with the likes of Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) up first. Wednesday we’ll get Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), and TJX (TJX).

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Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian (Szn 4, Ep21)

Published August 9, 2022

Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers…

Content Highlights

  • Hendry’s most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40);
  • “We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years” after “les miserables” period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11);
  • “I don’t think we have inflation.” Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53);
  • Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56);
  • What’s behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part… (39:49);
  • Markets are ‘bucking broncos.’ Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55);
  • Background on the guest. As an ‘OG contrarian’ Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58);
  • A little insight into Hendry’s current life and psychology (1:10:40);
  • Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37);
  • The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44);
  • China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).

More Information on the Guest

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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