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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep (Szn 6, Epsd 18)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Flip Pidot

Trends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep (Szn 6, Epsd 18)

Published October 23, 2024

With Flip Pidot, American Civics Exchange

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump — and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day — without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page.

Content Highlights

  • What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
  • About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
  • Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
  • Background on the guest (23:05);
  • If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
  • Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

More From the Guest

MoreTrends Point to Trump Victory, Republican Sweep (Szn 6, Epsd 18)
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The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)Podcast episode cover art feat Tony Greer

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)

Published October 1, 2024

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

Content Highlights

  • Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
  • China’s stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term… (4:57);
  • There are a number of ways to express the ‘long commodities’ trade. ETFs may be the simplest… (8:59)
  • The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
  • Don’t fade the AI story (14:20);
  • The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
  • Background on the guest (22:30);
  • Listener question: What’s the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
  • Election discussion (28:17).

More From the Guest

Not investment advice.

Quick Video Highlight From Our YouTube Channel

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Finding Contrarian Investors Among US Presidents Past and Present (Szn 6, Epsd 16)

Published September 25, 2024

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book ‘All the Presidents’ Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,’ in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year’s presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Content Highlights

  • The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
  • Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included… (6:37);
  • Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
  • Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals — and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
  • Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market… (21:11);
  • What we know about the investments of this year’s candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
  • Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
  • Presidents probably don’t need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

More Information on the Guest

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