Last updated on February 27, 2023
A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 — almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!
Callie Cox of eToro joins the podcast to discuss her view that the Federal Reserve can engineer a ‘soft landing’ — defeating inflation while not tipping the US economy into a recession.
- It’s hard to see how the Fed will be able to combat inflation without breaking things in the economy, but this is the guest’s view (3:00);
- This view is partly based on the job market (4:06);
- Inflation is the major risk to the ‘soft landing’ thesis. But there are encouraging signs (6:00);
- Still, there is a chance investors are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates from the Fed (8:08);
- Ultimately, investors are discounting the global economy’s strength (9:21);
- Technology has been harder hit than other sectors of the economy, which may bring second-order effects especially locally. But nationally, initial jobless claims are still low (13:57);
- The US consumer has been a particular strong point. No reason for that to stop (15:53);
- Background on the guest (20:12);
- Views on cryptocurrency (24:48);
- The concept of decentralized finance, or DeFi: not just a fool’s errand (26:43);
- Does the VIX still matter? Maybe, but there are better options to gauge volatility (31:14).
More on Callie Cox
- Website: eToro.com;
- Corporate Twitter: @eToroUS;
- Personal Twitter: @CallieAbost.
Quick Video Highlight From Our YouTube Channel
Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Callie Cox of eToro. Thank you so much for joining the contrarian investor podcast today.
Callie Cox 0:42
Thanks. I’m honored honored to be here.
Nathaniel E. Baker 0:45
The honor is mine
Callie Cox 0:47
As the guest contrarian.
Nathaniel E. Baker 0:48
Yes, well, we’re going to talk about this now, you have this view. And the premise here is that the Federal Reserve, its mandate, obviously is price stability, and this concept of they can kill inflation, or at least tame inflation without killing economic growth. We’ve had different people come on the podcast and talk about it, there’s quite a bit of debate over it. But it’s hard to see how the Fed is going to achieve this without creating pain in the economy, without breaking things in the economy, causing stuff like unemployment, and other things that come along with a recession. But your view is that the Fed can pull this off, even though and I’ll end with on this, their record of doing this is not good. In fact, it’s terrible. So yeah, over to you tell me about this. Why can the Fed engineer a soft landing and how?
Callie Cox 1:52
Yeah, so I think we need to start with what you started with now, which is what a soft landing is because I think understanding this is kind of the key to our view, and that the Fed can actually pull this off. So soft landing in our minds, and in most people’s minds, like you said, is essentially getting inflation down without without causing a recession. And in my mind, there’s a lot of debate around what a recession looks like, if you go by the textbook, two quarters of decline, declining GDP, then we might have already hit one. So when I think about a recession, I think about rising unemployment, because the job market and the economy are just so intricately linked. If you think about it, it makes sense because consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. And many of us spend money when we have jobs, and we have income. And I think that’s really where our view comes from here. The job market is so so resilient, it’s been resilient for the past year or so, it’s still bringing in incredibly strong numbers. And there is a way that the Fed could theoretically get inflation down via wages by increasing the labor supply. Now, I don’t want to get too technical, because I’m not a policy won’t there. So I can’t really get into details around you know, just where exactly supply is kind of like trailing off. And you know, how the federal get back? Because I think that that’s very policy driven. But it seems to be a view that’s working really well. So far, we’re seeing the labor supply take up, we’re seeing the job market almost normalized a little bit, you know, wage growth, still stay healthy, but come down to more of a balanced level. And companies keep hiring as well. We were always seeing these like rolling recessions throughout the economy where we hear about one industry that’s not doing well, like tech, for example. But then we hear about another industry that’s doing great things, services based industries. So I really think that there’s more than meets the eye to this economy. And I think, I think there’s an increasingly good chance that the Fed could use this kind of unbalanced economy with lots of sector stories, to eventually get to the point where it can get inflation down. And, you know, honestly, I think we’ve seen a lot of data that’s backed that up this year. And I feel like more and more economists are turning toward that conclusion.
Nathaniel E. Baker 4:09
Just today, inflation printed at 6.4% year over year, I believe that was the number and a little hotter than anticipated. 6% Inflation is five and change for core. How can you say inflation is coming down those numbers?
Callie Cox 4:25
Yeah, so I think inflation is the big risk to this view, right? And inflation is coming down and so quite high, so don’t get me wrong, but it is coming down from the 9% front we had like six months ago. The trouble there and the reason why we’re seeing disinflation is because goods prices are coming back and check you know, supply chains are snapping back together. Demand is slowing. You can see that all throughout the economy, but it’s slowing just enough to bring goods prices down. The trouble though is services services prices like the price you pay for a haircut. The price you pay for rent, the price you paid for medical bills, the services inflation Then is the kind of inflation that the Fed can really control because it’s more demand driven. And it doesn’t really rely on supply chains and services, inflation is still quite hot, which shows the Fed that there needs to be more work done on the job market, that inflation and the job market still aren’t back in balance. If you had to point out a part of the economy, that’s a big risk to this view, you know, the thing that’s really standing in the Feds way, it’s obviously inflation. It’s moving in the right direction, but the components of inflation are still wildly off. And, you know, I think it’s, I think it’s a really big risk. I am encouraged by the fact that wage growth is cooling, you know, wage growth and services, inflation are so linked, because wages are the reason why we we can spend more money on, you know, all these types of things we want for our lives. But you know, it’s just taking a lot of time on that end. And while it’s encouraging the Fed to maybe lead up on policy, and you’ll see how policy works its way through the economy, it’s also giving them a great argument to keep rates high and a high rate environment isn’t an easy one.
Nathaniel E. Baker 6:04
Yeah, and how can they cut rates if you have this much inflation. And this, and also the, you say the wage growth has come down, which is great, but the headline figures, if you look at the non farms a couple of weeks ago, and other things, I mean, employment is, too, it’s not too hot. For the Fed, were they I mean, are people under estimating the amount of rate hikes maybe that the Fed still has to do?
Callie Cox 6:30
I think they might be. And if you look at the market, if you look at the growth fueled rally that we’ve had for most of this year, I definitely think the market is under under estimating the pain here. But because at a higher rate environment, you and I both know that growth naturally doesn’t work as well, why? Because the value of the future dollar decreases. And we’re investing in the stocks because we believe in the future of them over what they can do now, which is a fine way to invest in a good strategy, if you want to go that way, but does not work in a high rate environment. But, you know, I think the market is under estimating this. And that’s why we’re getting a little more concerned at these levels. The fact that tech is leading this rally higher, the fact that we’re seeing more speculative stocks lead the rally higher. It’s really making us nervous around where the market could go. Because for a while there, we were optimistic, we were saying the lows are in, you know, if we don’t hit a recession, and you know, there could be a lot of surprise premium here, where we think the where we think the environment is a lot worse than it actually is. But now the s&p near 4100. Now with valuations a little stretched, we’re questioning that a little bit.
Nathaniel E. Baker 7:38
Okay. All right. But ultimately, you do think that the Fed will be able to pull off a soft planning.
Callie Cox 7:43
We have so we have so and we’re realists too, we know that there’s a chance of a recession. We’re not, you know, stepping out here and saying 100%, the Feds got this. The we’re so gritting our teeth behind the scenes. I think that people really are discounting the position that we’re in right now. And I do think part of the markets rally is the fact that we are realizing it. And I’ll throw another wrench in here, too. I think the global economy is moving in that direction as well. Europe is less bad than feared, you know, China has reopening. And it’s it’s yet to be seen how that could affect the growth picture or the inflation picture to be fair, but it seems like the pieces are kind of snapping together.
Nathaniel E. Baker 8:22
Yeah. And we had somebody actually just a couple weeks ago, come on the podcast and talk all about the China reopening shameless plug, if you listen to that, but such an interesting story, too. Yeah. Back to you. You talk about some areas of the economy that you say, are maybe worse than anticipated and where you have even been a little bit surprised. Can you talk about those where they are?
Callie Cox 8:46
Yeah, so I think the obvious one is tech, right? About tech layoffs. We see big tech, you know, struggling around kind of its identity with investors. And I wrote a whole long note on this, I think that this was actually really fascinating dynamic, where these big tech companies that we’ve you realized, that we’ve come to know for over the past decade that we’re that we spend a lot of our time on in our daily lives. These big tech companies are kind of at a crossroads right now, where they’re figuring out that the strategies that got them this big or that push them to this success may not be working anymore. So they’re kind of pivoting into their second act. And you know, they’re laying off at the same time and cost cutting, but if you’re a tech company that’s pivoting, you want to be spending money, but that’s not what investors want. There’s this tug, and there’s this tug of war between short term investor needs and then long term visionary needs. Anyway, that’s a rabbit hole that I can get into a little bit later. But I think Tech is one of those industries where it’s quite prominent, you know, tech, a lot of tech companies or and more growth sensitive. You know, they’ve had to, They’ve just grown so much over the past decade. They’ve had to quit back Quite noticeably over the past year or so. And there have been a lot of headlines around it too. So they’re visibly having a lot of trouble. Another industry and other rate sensitive industries, real estate, real estate went through a really rough year construction as well. Real estate is an interesting one, because I feel like it’s almost been hit too hard. Especially, you know, if you think the Fed can get inflation under control with prices at these levels, and may be time to start, you know, sniffing around there again, but tech and real estate are the ones that really stand out to me. industrials, interestingly enough, are another one. But they’ve been hit a little bit harder because of global growth concerns, and what’s happening in Europe. And now we’re finding out that things in Europe aren’t as bad as we think. And, you know, again, with China’s reopening, we could see a little more and we are seeing a little more optimism around more global linked stocks. So industrials fall in that bucket as well.
Nathaniel E. Baker 10:57
Interesting. Yeah. Is there any hope, though, with with real estate and mortgage applications have been rising recently, and the mortgage rates have come down? So would that maybe provide a glimmer of hope for you there?
Callie Cox 11:10
logistically, yes. I mean, mortgage rates are the big thing here. That’s the rate sensitivity. So as mortgage rates come down, you could see a little bit more interest in the housing market. The problem with the housing market is that it’s not just mortgage rates, not it’s not just interest, it’s an inventory problem as well. But on the other side, and I’ve experienced this a lot, because I’m a millennial, I live in Charlotte, pick you do one of the biggest booming cities in the US, the thing is like demographically, the housing market could be in a really good position, because you have the largest generation alive, the millennials coming into their household household formation years, and they’re naturally looking for houses. So the housing markets a little bit of a weird one for me. Like it’s very rate sensitive right now, but long term, it could have a lot of really good forces behind it.
Nathaniel E. Baker 12:00
Okay. But you don’t think that the tech stuff where the real estate stuff or the industrials could spill over into the broader economy. There’s a here too, there’s been a lot of debate about this with how much of the economy is actually represented by the tech industry. And from most counts, it’s not that big. But what are your views there?
Callie Cox 12:23
Yeah. So I think that there’s still second order effects that we’re trying to figure out there. And there are certainly ways that at least locally, tech layoffs could spill tech layoffs or any industry layoffs could spill into the broader economy, because you’re laid off, you don’t have income, you don’t spend as much money, you’re maybe a little more conservative in other areas. I will say, though, it’s been really interesting to see the uptick in layoffs versus jobless claims, especially initial jobless claims. And the fact that initial jobless claims are moving lower, even though we’re seeing this uptick in layoffs, that tells me that, you know, whoever is getting laid off, they’re getting back in the job market and they’re finding a job really quickly, which you’d have to think that the economic impact of that would probably be trade minimal. Oh, yeah.
Nathaniel E. Baker 13:10
I thought it was just because these people are very high paid tech bros who don’t want to be bothered with unemployment, and have enough put aside where they don’t need to file?
Callie Cox 13:21
That could be another theory.
Nathaniel E. Baker 13:26
Yeah, but interesting. Okay. So I’m sorry, go ahead. Go on
Callie Cox 13:31
it’s okay. But like, regardless of what the story is behind it, which I think that there could be a lot of stories, it seems like these layoffs are translating into, you know, a big pullback in consumer spending. But I also think with the tech industry and with other industries, you have to think about suppliers, you have to think about connected industries and the pain you see there. It’s just hard to say that there’s been a lot of pain generally, because you just don’t see it pop up in the data.
Nathaniel E. Baker 13:57
You mentioned the consumer and the consumer has been one strong point. And one could argue maybe the one that has kept the global economy from rolling over here, especially the US consumer. Do you think that the US consumer can continue to spend continue to increase spending here as all these factors come in? Yeah, well,
Callie Cox 14:17
the consumer has been very resilient for the past year. It’s even surprised me. I mean, honestly, I was talking to my colleague, Ben Laidler. Back in the middle of last year, and we were like, well, excess savings are going to run out, and that’s going to be yet. And then there’s the question around the perception of consumers and how confidence is so low, but at the same time spending is still quite, you know, decent. It seems like everything is working against the consumer, but the consumer keeps spending and I think that’s a reflection of just how strong the job market is, and just how good of a position overall consumers are in and I want to caveat that because it’s not I don’t think it’s the same across the board. I think if you look across income levels, there’s definitely some localized pain there. But at the same time, I think as long as the job market stays strong, we could see strong consumer spending. And when I say a strong job market, I mean healthy wage growth, even though wage growth is coming down, healthy hiring, and then low jobless claims.
Nathaniel E. Baker 15:17
All right. Very interesting. All right, Callie Cox of eToro, I want to take a short break and come back and ask you some more questions about yourself, your background eToro. And we’re also going to take on Kryptos, which is my least favorite topic, but whatever. That’s not the point. So we’ll do that in just one minute. If you are a premium subscriber, don’t go anywhere. Don’t touch the dial. We’ll be right back. In fact, we already are. And if you want to become a premium subscriber, you can sign up at the website contrarian. pod.substack.com.
Welcome back, everybody here with Callie Cox of eToro. Callie, this is the section of the podcast where we talk to our guests about their background personal and professional how they came to this station in their life. It’s so happens that my background and yours overlap briefly. But see, yeah, so talking about that. What how you how you got here.
Callie Cox 16:27
I’m glad you said that, because I was definitely going to call out the facts. Work together. Okay, fair. Um, yeah. So I started out at Bloomberg, I was a journalist at Bloomberg doing the most non journalist thing you can imagine I was the options reporter and I read a daily options column for the terminals, institutional clients about implied volatilities and opportunities. They’re very, very nerdy. I found out I loved it. I really loved Bloomberg. But I wanted to get a little more into research. So I took an analyst position at Tabb group. It’s a market structure firm, that focuses on kind of how you trade things instead of what you trade in terms of liquidity in terms of spreads and pricing, in terms of strategies, and how you get that how you get certain strategies with certain products. And that was my foray into research. And I’ve basically stayed in research in different capacities since then. And since then, I’ve moved more into the retail space as well. I really, really like working with retail investors, because as somebody who’s a millennial trying to figure out her own money situation. And as somebody who grew up in a situation where we, we didn’t really talk about money, I realized the gap that’s there. And the fact that a lot of stuff out there isn’t really filling the gap these days. So being retail investors face, it’s really exciting. It’s growing a lot. I feel like I have a lot to offer it. And that’s eventually how I landed at eToro. And on eToro. I’m essentially a research analyst and a content strategist all in one.
Nathaniel E. Baker 18:02
And eToro. Is that a relatively new firm or
Callie Cox 18:05
is actually a lot older than people think. So it started in 2007. It’s a global company. It’s based in Tel Aviv. It’s bigger over in Europe, Europe is our biggest market. But it’s a social investing service. And E Toros mission is essentially to give you everything you want to invest in on one platform, right? So whatever you want to choose, it’s there, you can invest in it. And you can talk with your friends and find community on the app as well. And, you know, basically learn by doing learn by doing and learn by following and watching and talking with other people.
Nathaniel E. Baker 18:39
Cool. Interesting. Now, how did you get into your first job out of college was writing about options and implied vol. What did you do in college to get hired for that?
Callie Cox 18:52
So I went to journalism school. I did. Yeah. And it’s it does seem like you’re really weirdly but honestly, I just wanted a job so badly. Yeah. I saw I interned for Bloomberg and on their tech desk, and I ended up getting an offer to be a rotating reporter, which I don’t know if you’re familiar with that?
Nathaniel E. Baker 19:14
I remember that. Well, yeah.
Callie Cox 19:15
Okay, gotcha. So it’s for everybody else. It’s where you basically do three or four internships and then they place you on a full time desk. It doesn’t always happen, but most of the time it does happen. So I was offered this rotating position. I was on corporate finance. And I was like, this isn’t nerdy for me, which is weird. When I was on corporate finance, and then I went to the stocks desk, and I interned there for a bit but our options reporter actually left and I really wanted a full time job on the stocks desk, because that’s like the desk to be on and a business news room. It’s the most exciting desk, right? So I took it I was like look, I want a full time job and I want it on the stocks desks. they’ll give me options. I’ll do it. And then I kind of fell in love with the numerical side of it. And the fact that numbers really tell you the story. I’m not a super creative person and that I can like look around me and see a story. Or at least I wasn’t back then I think I’ve gotten better at that. But I really liked the fact that I could just crunch some numbers and then find something to write about and have other people tell me like, Yeah, I saw that same jump in implied volatility, or I saw that same flow into a vix product. And, you know, I think it’s interesting too. So that kind of that sparked my love of numbers and database reporting. That turned into research. And that led me to where I am now.
Nathaniel E. Baker 20:41
I guess the crypto thing. And that’s actually interesting to that you’re, well, why don’t you tell us your views on crypto?
Callie Cox 20:49
Yeah, sure. So eToro in the US is known as a crypto heavy shop. And it’s true. So eToro, globally has been around for quite a while. But the US side of eToro has been around since I believe 2018. And we’re a full scale Berg broker dealer, we offer stocks, options, and crypto. But crypto is what we’ve offered for the longest. And that’s kind of where we made our name in the US. I even though I hate this phrase. I’m just gonna say it. I’m a cautious optimist on crypto. I think the concept is very interesting, the concept of decentralization. I think you can see it all around you and what we’re witnessing and deglobalization, what we’re witnessing on social media, what we’re witnessing on the web, basically turning power to the people from more centralized entities like government. I think that’s a really interesting concept. And at the heart of crypto at the heart of decentralization. That’s what it’s all about. But crypto has two roads to it. There’s the conceptual part of it. And then there’s the financialization part of it. And I think it’s really tough for people to gauge where crypto on like the coins and financialization side should be right now. And that’s like talking about bitcoin price targets and stuff, right. So we don’t put out price targets. And I think it’s actually quite hard to say, you know, this is where we think Bitcoin should be trading, because it’s really hard to figure out what the fundamentals are besides supplying, yeah. But I’m really excited about the conceptual side of it. I’m optimistic about the financial side of it, but it’s hard to say, where certain coins should be trading and what the value of certain coins are.
Nathaniel E. Baker 22:36
Conceptually, though, this whole idea of decentralization. Isn’t that just kind of a bit of a fool’s errand? Like, I mean, don’t you need Central’s and don’t you need it? And also, can’t you? Couldn’t you say that really, that it’s at best a myth? And that ultimately, you’re not really getting decoupled or decentralized from every anything, especially today when everything’s so interconnected?
Callie Cox 23:01
Yeah. Well, that’s the big question. And I think this past year has taught us that a little bit of centralization and a little bit of decentralization work really well together, which isn’t what a lot of people want to hear, because they want to pick one side or the other. But when I think back on this last year, I mean, obviously, centralization seem to thrive in an era of high rates. And in an era of investors turning toward reliability, basically, you say, I want to trade, I want to do it. Now. I want to make sure my money is protected. And it’s like, well, you know, sometimes that’s better with a centralized party at the helm. That has that has government backed insurance behind it. Sure. All that traditional stuff that we seem to forget about. But at the same time, I mean, I look back on like the Ukraine crisis, for example, getting aid over to Ukraine happened much quicker through crypto and through decentralized apps. Okay. Yeah. And there’s a lot of data backing that up. And that’s a situation that sticks out in my mind where it’s like, okay, decentralization really does make sense. I don’t think he can go too far, one way or the other. But I’m the I’m of the opinion that a little bit of decentralization could push for the financial system, if done in a safe yet innovative way. And striking that line is really, really hard. Yeah. And you’re seeing it happen.
Nathaniel E. Baker 24:20
Yeah, fair enough. I mean, that was a good point there on. On Ukrainian. I was not aware of that. So there are actual use cases for when digital currencies are a benefit present a benefit to traditional currencies?
Callie Cox 24:34
Yeah, I think there are. I mean, one other one that I’ll throw out too, is that almost the tokenization of stocks, so stocks can trade 24/7 all around the world. I think we’re moving toward that quite rapidly. And I know an analyst I mean, obviously, there are pros and cons to everything. But just the access that it opens up the fact that you know, you could be in Japan and want to trade coal stock, actually cool. was is an awful example. Know why you’d want to treat colds? actually cut that one out compliance from that like that? Let’s say let’s say you live in Japan and you want to trade a stock, but you’re way off hours with the US. I mean, with the tokenization of stocks, you could do that. I think we’re getting closer to that. And I think I think it makes sense for us based exchanges to look into it, because US stocks are, are the focus of everybody around the world. But I feel like that’s a use case, but then reach that a lot of people are discounting mean, the fact that decentralization can make things we’re used to right now, a little bit better, a little bit more.
Nathaniel E. Baker 25:38
So wouldn’t it be easier just to open up the I mean, the trading is electronic now anyway, it’s not like you have pits anymore? Wouldn’t you just wouldn’t be easier just to make the make the exchanges, trade 24/7 Rather than creating whole new token or security basically?
Callie Cox 25:55
Yeah, it could be it could be, but tokenization is almost one of the avenues I could take to get to that 24/7.
Nathaniel E. Baker 26:03
Yeah, yeah. All right. Very cool. Very cool. Any other areas that you think are ripe for disruption that you think are? Maybe people aren’t talking about enough?
Callie Cox 26:15
Well, I think within crypto, it’s really hard not to focus on the negatives and crypto. But I think if crypto is going to prove itself, it’s going to be over the next few years and a high rate environment, because high rates naturally wash out the weak capital. And it makes people focus on the utility of what they’re investing and the economic value. And that’s been the main argument against crypto, the fact that there’s no economic value in it, which is a fair argument. It’s not it’s not too far off. I think we’re getting there, but it’s not too far off. So I think the next few years for crypto is going to be really, really important to show us what that economic value is. And I think the conditions are ripe for us to get there. I think a lot of protocols are building and we could see a lot of interesting things come up. But maybe that’s just my hope speaking. I think either way it’s going to show us where are the industry is headed there.
Nathaniel E. Baker 27:08
The VIX, right? So this is something that we see cited often. I personally, I’m not so sure that that does it still matter, the VIX? I mean, it seems to be completely arbitrary at this point. So what are your views on? Options background? Yeah,
Callie Cox 27:25
so the VIX is near and dear to my heart as an options. I really like every other story. I as an options reporter, I read every other story on the VIX. It’s it’s been one of those tried and true tools. But I think the market environment is changing a little. And it requires you to look outside the VIX at other short term indicators to figure out what exactly the market is expecting. So the big the big argument around the VIX is that it hasn’t spiked yet in this bear market. And there’s a lot of debate on why that’s happened and how that’s so weird. Because in the past two or three bear markets is spiked up to 80 or so. And I think the high for this bear is 36. And there are a lot of really interesting stories or theories on why that can be the case. But I think one that I’m really ascribing to these days is the fact that investors are looking more and more short term, especially with the fact that daily and weekly options are products that they can trade in now. And the VIX just doesn’t measure demand in there. The VIX measures demand more toward the 30 day point of options expiration, that’s just how it’s built. So it’s not broken. It’s it’s doing what it’s supposed to do. But it’s not measuring where all the demand is right now. So I think that’s actually quite a big reason why the VIX hasn’t been as reactive. And I also think, you know, investors have been quite hedged during this bear market. So there hasn’t really been a rush in the hedges. There hasn’t been a lot of surprise. There’s just been a lot of general anxiety. But I think a lot of it has to do with market structure and the fact that the VIX just doesn’t quite reflect where the options industry is at these days.
Nathaniel E. Baker 29:03
Interesting. So what’s a better gauge of, I guess, risk? And if not the VIX?
Callie Cox 29:08
I think we’re figuring that out. There’s a short term VIX. It’s called the I think it’s literally called the short term VIX. But it’s a measure of nine day options prices. It’s been around for several years now. Um, it’s interesting, because this year, the VIX has been or in 2022, the VIX was pretty contained. But the short term vix was all over the place. Okay, you actually saw it build up right before economic data releases. So CPI, fed announcements, jobs reports, you saw it, build up and then basically drop after the economic event, which shows people were piling into hedges and then coming back out or piling into speculative trades and then coming back out, which I think is a pretty fair, a fair view of what what’s been happening. So I mean, you can look at that a little but more but I think generally it’s best to kind of question how things are working these days, because just so much has changed since we’ve been in, you know, a systemic bear market, a bear market where we have seen one of those prolonged recessions. 2020 was a recession in a bear market, but it’s a little bit different. Forced, yeah, one month, switch the economy on and switch it or switch it off, switch it back on type of recessions. But I yeah, I really think I and I have been questioning a lot of the indicators that I’m watching to just asking myself, Is this appropriate for what? You know, I want it to show me the VIX is at the top of the list, but the put call ratio is another one of those where I think that there’s a lot of trading going on in both puts and calls that isn’t necessarily directional trading. But people see it as a directional indicator.
Nathaniel E. Baker 30:51
Right? Yeah, right. Yeah. Right. What is how did you track this short term VIX? I mean, just fine. Because you’ve been tracking the VIX is hard enough. But the how do you get it go? Is there a way to do it?
Callie Cox 31:04
And so the easiest way to do it, I just knew the thing to say. But I You can log on CBOs website, the Chicago Board Options.
Nathaniel E. Baker 31:15
Okay. Daily figures.
Callie Cox 31:17
Nathaniel E. Baker 31:17
Okay. That’s true. That’s true. Good point. Yeah. Right. All right. Very cool. Callie Cox, in closing, maybe tell our listeners how they can find out more about you. I know you’re very active on Twitter, and about eToro on these interweb things. Yeah, for sure.
Callie Cox 31:33
So, as Nat said, I’m very active on Twitter. My handle is @Callieabost. I talk markets all the time. I’m a little snarky, but I love talking to my followers. I love discussing what’s going on. So follow me follow eToro. US also very active on Twitter. And I write a weekly note. It’s called the bottom line. It’s on eToro. His blog etoro.com backslash news and analysis. Yeah, I write about basically what a retail investor should care about and how investing connects with our daily lives.
Nathaniel E. Baker 32:05
You know, I have a segment of my daily podcast called The bottom line that I’m now going to have to rename.
Callie Cox 32:11
Oh, no. Well, as long as I don’t have to rename it
Nathaniel E. Baker 32:15
No, but you’re first and yours.
Callie Cox 32:16
I think we can coexist.
Nathaniel E. Baker 32:20
I don’t know. I’m figuring it out.
Callie Cox 32:22
I mean, if we’re being honest here, companies on the bottom line way before we did,
Nathaniel E. Baker 32:26
well, yep. We’re not being honest. And that’s not your first Callie. Yeah. Cool. Awesome. Callie, thank you so much for coming on. Really great having you. Look forward to having you back again soon. And thank you all for listening. Thank you all for being with us. And we will look forward to speaking to you again next week.