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Season 2, Episode 24: Math and Algorithms Are Overrated When it Comes to Investing

With Eric Chung, CIO, Lighthaven Capital Management

Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing.

“The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful … I think there’s been some pretty significant overreliance on these things,” says Chung.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):

  • The example of Long Term Capital Management and how it got him to take notice (2:41);
  • Not enough has been written about the fallacy risk parity (13:59);
  • Background on the guest (24:36);
  • Lighthaven Capital’s investing strategy (28:30);
  • Chung’s decision to de-risk the portfolio in Q1 (31:49);
  • The “external, exogenous factors” that go into his risk models (34:59);
  • A Joseph Biden presidency and what it could mean for markets (37:39);
  • What is the market getting wrong right now? (39:05);
  • Contrarian opinion on the potential Biden administration’s stance toward China (46:42);
  • Reasons for optimism (49:49).

More Information on the Guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 21, Transcribed: Prepare for the ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery, With David Neuhauser

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge the prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
Okay. David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners. Thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today. The economic recovery, the “V shape,” is effectively priced into markets. As we record this on Thursday, June 25. The S&P 500 is up well over 30% off its lows. It seems that there is very little that can upend this buying mentality on Wall Street from investors, whether those investors are people of the Robin Hood crowd or more of the larger institutions, which is another question for another day. But your views here are a lot more bearish. And you are anticipating an L shaped recovery, which is a bit of a misnomer because if it is an L shape, then it doesn’t really recover, does it? So, I’d be really interested in having you lay out your views here for us.

David Neuhauser 1:42
Yeah, for sure, Nate, and thanks for having me. I mean, the way you look at it as you have to still look at you know, markets is just like economies run in cycles. And if you look at the past decade, as we’ve known it’s been predicated on low interest rates which has caused you know, By central banks that has caused, obviously economic development and along with tax cuts, and and that’s where we’ve seen the massive amounts of stimulus, which has fueled growth for a number of years. All that’s great. We obviously seen now with covid 19, that that’s been up ended. And the fight that of course, we’ve seen massive economic stimulus from both government and the Federal Reserve. And that, of course, is helping propel markets. But I do think there’s two, you know, there’s two things you have to look at. One is the economy, as they say, and there’s one that there’s the markets, and from an economic standpoint, even with vaccine, which, you know, at a bull case, I would say you’re talking about 12 months or 18 months from now, you’re still going to look at sustainable, higher levels of unemployment, you’re still going to see a lot lower economic activity, you’re still going to see no just less overall activity in the economy in terms of retail in terms of Travel and Leisure in terms of purchases, and When you include that all in to where we’ve been to where we are today, and where we’re going, you have to look at it and say, you know, big picture, you know, we most likely have seen the best days behind us in the past, you know, five or 10 years and going forward, it’s gonna be a rough road.

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Season 2, Episode 23: The COVID Disconnect And The Coming ‘Melt Up’ In Markets

With Enrique Abeyta, Empire Financial Research

The evolution of media has led to a “disconnect” between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research.

“We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.,” says Abeyta. This, along with unprecedented liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, will lead to a melt-up in global financial markets.


  • The disconnect in popular political and economic analysis and the actual situation with COVID in the U.S. (4:38);
  • Look at the numbers in aggregate; they are clearly declining (8:52);
  • The war on COVID is almost over and the coronavirus could effectively be over “in six weeks” (12:52);
  • What does all this mean for investors? Look at gyms and movie theaters (16:07);
  • A simple options strategy to play the coming melt-up that looks a lot like 1999 (18:07);
  • Three contrarian views and why the coming melt-up will be the best investing and trading environment in a generation (24:48);
  • Background on the guest (27:33);
  • How do you get your ideas? (39:28);
  • The “V-word” and why it doesn’t matter and doesn’t work (41:10);
  • The case for (42:48);
  • “Shorting sucks” (45:04);
  • Asset management is a religion (49:21);
  • Short discussion of risks (51:12).

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

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