Last updated on September 20, 2023
With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.
Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.
- The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
- Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
- The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
- The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
- The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
- Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
- New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
- Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
- One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).
Not investment advice.
Quick Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel
Nathaniel E. Baker 0:35
Ayesha Tariq of MacroVisor in Dubai, rejoining the podcast, Aisha, thank you so much for coming back on.
Ayesha Tariq 0:45
Thank you so much for having me back on. It’s awesome to be back. It’s been a while
Nathaniel E. Baker 0:51
It has. It’s been more than a year, about 16 months or so. But you have some very contrarian views for us. And to jump off with your most contrarian take right now is that wait for it, there’s going to be a hard landing for the global economy. This comes during a time when the soft landing scenario is basically priced in has basically become the base case. But you don’t buy it. Tell me why.
Ayesha Tariq 1:33
I don’t. I don’t buy it at all. Let me first define our timeframe a little bit, right, just to say, just to set the stage. So our timeframe is about six to nine months. So we’re looking out six to nine months from here. And we look at the global macro picture in general. Now, when we look at the US in particular. So when let’s let’s take it a little bit, you know, developed markets versus emerging markets. So where the emerging markets are concerned? I don’t think that, you know, we’re going to see much of I think the picture there is a little bit more, let’s say confused. So we might see a hard landing. But that’s, you know, a little bit. It goes with emerging markets in general, when you have a hiking cycle. But I think the biggest mistake is for the US right now. So Europe, I think we have flat we have about Yeah, growth is flat. Germany came in at 0% GDP. So it’s not a far fetched notion that Europe slips into a recession. So the real question here is, then the US. And the US is where everybody is expecting a soft landing. So just to define what a soft landing is, it’s when you know, you narrowly avoid a recession, and you don’t have a high rate of unemployment, right. Now, here’s the thing, we are seeing GDP increase massively. And we’ve seen, you know, the GDP growth rate being taken up by the various forecasters that say, however, when we look at the picture, in totality, I don’t think that the US can escape a recession. Now, the recession might not be deep. But we are seeing signs where we’ve had a lot of fiscal impulse come in, which has propped up the GDP. But going forward, if we need inflation, to come into check the way the Fed wants it to, we will need to see a recession, we will need to see GDP come down significantly. And it’s a bit of a chicken and egg situation right now, in the sense that this strong GDP is what is giving the fed the ammunition to increase rates and keep rates higher for longer. However, on the flip side, this high level of GDP is what will keep inflation higher as well. So I think that we are seeing the labor market softened a little bit. And that will eventually lead into a recession.
Nathaniel E. Baker 4:23
Okay, okay. That’s a lot for us to unpack very interesting. It sounds like you’re saying that the Fed still needs to break stuff in the economy to solve the inflation issues. And they haven’t done that yet with existing rate hikes.
Ayesha Tariq 4:43
so that yes, yes. And no, in the sense that when we say the Fed needs to break stuff, or the Fed will break stuff, we are usually looking for some kind of credit event to happen, right? So that’s something big to blow up.
Nathaniel E. Baker 4:59
What about, say, a banking crisis?
Ayesha Tariq 5:00
So, yes, we saw a bit of that you’re absolutely right. We saw a bit of that in March with some of the bank failures, it didn’t exactly happen the way I thought it would happen. So or probably that anyone thought it would happen, because when you talk about bank failures, the first thing that comes to your mind is a rising level of defaults, right? So you think that we have a whole lot of defaults, and that’s what’s taking the bank down. That wasn’t the situation in this case. So it took a lot of us by surprise. But the end result, let’s say was the same in the sense that we did see banks fail. And then the Fed obviously swooped in with their backstop, which was the bank term funding program. And they kind of helped the banks out. So I think the Fed is wary of these kind of credit events. So I don’t see a huge credit event happening. And I think this is a little contrarian as well, because I, those of us who still believe that there will be a recession, and the Fed will break stuff, they’re looking for a credit event to happen for the Fed to break stuff, I think it’s going to be a different kind of slowdown, I don’t think it will necessarily mean something big will blow up. But I think we will see small bits and pieces of failures, small blow ups here and there, which will eventually drag, you know, growth down and take inflation down with it. So I think it’s a more gradual process, which is why that we see the recession coming sometime next year. Perhaps in all honesty, I don’t think it will be as painful as everybody thinks.
Nathaniel E. Baker 6:50
Okay, this kind of begs the question that have we had this historically. Now, most of us are too young to remember recessions other than the well, the COVID. One, which we’ll we’ll forget about for a minute. But there are two you have you almost always seem to have catastrophic events that precede the recession, obviously, oh, eight, all that stuff. Going back earlier in the early 90s, you have the savings and loan crisis that kind of preceded that. Going back further than that, you know, maybe geopolitical events in the late 70s, early 80s, whatever. But do you think it’s feasible and possible for us to have a recession without a major catalyst like that?
Ayesha Tariq 7:32
So I do think, yes, it is feasible. And that’s why I think the recession will be milder than what you know, would happen under a normal credit event. So it won’t be like a 2008 kind of scenario, where we did have a major credit event or a series of major credit events that took the markets down, that took the economy down, and put the economy into a long recession. Right. So whether we like to admit it or not, I think we still call it the great financial crisis for a reason, right. And we saw the effects of that, sort of the repercussions of that all over the globe. I do think this time, it won’t be so globalized, I think everyone will have their own localized problems. Let’s say there is more global connectivity, for sure. But I do think every part of you know, every region that will probably go through this correction has their own issues, let’s say.
Nathaniel E. Baker 8:31
And this begs the question now, and this gets into another contrarian call that you have about the Fed. And if we look now at bad futures markets, they’re pricing in just a 20% chance to Oh, of the Fed hiking rates at their next meeting, which is September 26. But you don’t quite buy that either.
Ayesha Tariq 8:50
Right. So I think there are two calls right now for the September meeting. One says that there’ll be no February fed hikes at all, like this is it we’re done. And then the other is that we will skip September and have a hike in November. Now, we have the summary of economic projections as well coming out in September with the Fed meeting. So that’s something to remember. And when we see those numbers, more often than not the Fed adjusts during the when those numbers are released. So my idea is we do see a hike in September. I know I might be totally wrong here. But I think they hike in September, and then they’re done. That’s how I see it play out.
Nathaniel E. Baker 9:37
Yeah. So I just checked in and it’s actually 21%. Now 21.5% According to fed fund futures, that are expecting a rate hike in September, if you if you go out to November, we’re looking at 50% Five out what makes you think the Fed will hike now rather than in November.
Ayesha Tariq 9:56
So I think we have a few more data points coming out. So we have the labor market data for, that’s on first of September this Friday. And then we have PCE this week. And we have one more CPI coming up before the Fed meeting. And I think these will come in hotter than expected in the sense that, you know, the labor market wouldn’t move as much as expected, which gives the Fed, you know, ammunition to hike. And then on the other hand, you have, you know, the PCE and the inflation, the CPI inflation data, which is likely to come out slightly hotter than expected as well. Last month, we didn’t see much of a movement in the housing data, which is, as you know, the largest part of inflation. And I think seeing a downside movement in that number is what will probably change the Feds mind. So they were saying that we should start seeing, seeing this number drop in July, and that was our take as well. So I did some calculations. And I also thought it would be June, July when we see this numbers that are dropped. But we aren’t seeing that drop. And we know that housing has come back to a large extent. So it remains to be seen whether that really makes a big move. I don’t. It may make a move, but I don’t think the move will be big enough to deter the threat fed from you know, hiking.
Nathaniel E. Baker 11:25
Right, right. I’m looking for so then you think we’re done now, do we see cuts next year?
Ayesha Tariq 11:30
I do think we’ll see cuts next year. But the market is pricing in pretty drastic cuts. Again, I think that may go back to the idea that you’ll see a recession and we might have a credit event, and so on and so forth. Plus we have an election year. So this is another reason why I think the Fed will not go beyond this year when it comes to hiking. So they’ll try to finish as quickly as possible. For the next year, I do think we’ll see cuts, but I don’t think it will be as aggressive as people are pricing in. I think it will be very shallow cuts 25 basis points to start with. And I think they’ll be far more gradual than people think.
Nathaniel E. Baker 12:15
Yeah. And there are two as I look here about at fed fund futures 20% are pricing in a rate cut of 50 basis points by June. So obviously, the more forward looking you get the more out there some of these expectations are but still, that’s pretty interesting.
Ayesha Tariq 12:32
I don’t think they even start before June. So I’m thinking the first rate cut would be somewhere maybe June or July, you know? Yeah.
Nathaniel E. Baker 12:42
Now usually when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. But you’re saying now maybe the rest of the global hold on a little better.
Ayesha Tariq 12:50
So it depends. So I think there are certain emerging market economies that may not slip into a recession per se. For example, Mexico, Brazil, they’re doing quite well, they were very early in their hiking cycle, they were very aggressive. So all things considered, they aren’t faring too poorly, they’re actually doing quite well, compared to the US where China is concerned. I think China, the obviously they’re far away from a recession. But I do think that their growth declines quite a bit. Now for them. Anything below 5% is actually let’s say, recessionary you know, because they’ve had above normal growth for the last 40 years, the growth has averaged GDP growth has averaged at around 8% above 8%. So that’s like a big drop for them. I think Japan will do Okay, so really, it’s the UK, Europe and the US that I think is going to be in a dilemma, perhaps Australia as well, to some extent, but not as much as these three regions.
Nathaniel E. Baker 13:59
But these are the biggest consumers globally, US, Europe and the UK. And you think that the rest of the world can be all right without with those slowing the consumers, retrenching.
Ayesha Tariq 14:11
So I don’t think we’ll have massive growth. But I think they can they, I think growth might be stable at a very low level. Plus, don’t forget, a lot of things have changed in terms of energy and agriculture, and those kinds of, you know, so the commodity space has changed quite a bit. Right. And as long as we have oil above a certain level, there are countries in the world who actually prosper from that. Right. So the Middle East, for example, where I am, the OPEC countries will do okay. So it’s a bit of a, you know, odd situation right now, and I think that it will be a balancing act, let’s say,
Nathaniel E. Baker 14:56
and you don’t seem particularly worried about China either.
Ayesha Tariq 14:59
So much China is concerned, I think we will be chopping around in a range for a while I don’t see huge upside this year. The issue is, the Chinese government has a target of 5% GDP. So as long as they don’t see that 5% Target threatened to a large extent, they are not gonna do anything either way. So negative or positive, so they won’t have any large scale, let’s say stimulus or negative, you know, issues. But so I do think that they will start that, you know, the market will just chop in a range. However, they do have their own problems, and they have to eventually take care of this. So, my idea is, we probably see more of that coming in towards the first quarter of next year versus anything actually happening this year. I think they hold on to their tiny measures for now. And for the market to actually take off there. What we do need is a very, you know, what they’re calling a bazooka, like stimulus measure, right? So we need something drastic for the government to do something drastic to you know, get the market moving there.
Nathaniel E. Baker 16:16
And if they have deflation, you figure they’d be able to do that. Right.
Ayesha Tariq 16:20
So you would think so, but they have localized problems in other areas. So the property market, as you know, is like in shambles, right now. They have their local governments, you know, financing vehicles, lgfb, that has a lot of debt, there’s a lot of debt coming due that needs to be refinanced. You know, rates are still relatively high. So we are seeing and the cash flow isn’t coming in, as you know, we would expect consumption has not taken off the way one would hope. So people are saving more than they are consuming. It feels like the Chinese people have lost a bit of faith in the government in the economy. And they’re just saving up their money right now. Because they’re, let’s say a little cautious of what might happen in the next six to nine months
Nathaniel E. Baker 17:17
now leading into that the commodities you also have some contrarian views there. Yeah, tell us about that.
Ayesha Tariq 17:25
Right. So my contract view is on copper. We know that copper is called Dr. Copper. And it’s called Dr. Copper, because it sort of signals what happens in the economy. So when copper is going down, we know that the economy is contracting, we’re seeing recessions and so on and so forth. So with my call of a potential recession in the US and the UK, and the slowdown in China, I still think copper might go higher from here. And the reason is, so immediately with me that in the next two to three months, we might see muted prices. But in six to nine months, I see copper higher from where we are right now. And despite a slowdown despite, you know, a recession, and that’s because the demand for copper is changing, right. And copper stockpiles are still pretty low. So if you look at the data, you’ll see that sentiment is low, which is driving price down. But the actual stockpiles haven’t increased the way we needed to. So my feeling is that supply is going to take over, and the low supply will actually drive prices up versus the demand side coming in.
Nathaniel E. Baker 18:51
Okay. And on the demand side, is China no longer the biggest consumer of importer of copper, are there others?
Ayesha Tariq 18:58
Oh, they are? They are, but they haven’t stopped. So their biggest market was the property market and the infrastructure market where copper was used for copper wiring and all of that. But as I said, the demand shifted a little bit, right. So now they are doing mass scale AV production, which needs a lot of copper. And you see that everywhere. So even though some, you know sectors don’t have the demand for copper. There are other sectors that do have the demand for copper and those sectors are growing, maybe not at the same pace, but they are growing and so there there is a certain level of pressure on that supply.
Nathaniel E. Baker 19:41
Interesting. All right. This is all very interesting stuff. I want to take a quick break and come back and ask you some more questions from our listeners if you’ll indulge us but let’s first take a quick break and give our sponsors a minute to be heard. If you are a premium subscriber. You will not get the break, so don’t touch the dial stay right here. We’ll be right back. In fact, we already are.
Welcome back, everybody here with Aisha Tariq. Joining us from sunny Dubai, at least I’m assuming it’s sunny? MacroVisor, MacroVisor.com. This is a show this is usually the segment of the podcast where we ask our guests, some background about themselves. However, you’ve been on before. And so we have your background already, people can and should go back and listen to that. And we also have a new feature, which are listener questions. Before we get to those, though, I want to ask you one more question about interest rates and central bank policy. And you still have inflation, as you mentioned, running a little hotter than the Fed would like. But you don’t see any more rate cuts rate hikes beyond the one either September, November. That’s it and for next year, either. But are there other things that the central banks might do to combat inflation?
Ayesha Tariq 21:07
Yes, that’s a great question. Thank you for that. So you’re right, I do think that inflation is still running very high. In fact, it’s still double the target that, you know, they need to get to right both in Europe and in the US. And historically, we’ve seen from 4% to 2%. That’s where it gets very, very tricky. Now, as I said, I don’t think the US will hike after this year, because it’s an election year next year. But they do need to step up the pace of QT. So what they’ve been doing as of now and rolling up the bonds, it’s working. But if you look at the balance sheet in general, I mean, it hasn’t come down as much as one would hope. Right. So we’re still far, far above the level we were pre pandemic. And I think that’s what needs to change for inflation to come down. So. And in the end, when we talk about Europe, I think Europe will probably be one and done as well. But I think that will be a mistake, I honestly think that they should do two more rate hikes Because don’t forget, they started much later than the US. And inflation is still higher there. Whereas their policy rate is still much lower than the US so they still have room to hike. I think they’re okay on their balance sheet runoff policies. But I think where they need to step up the game is hiking rates.
Nathaniel E. Baker 22:37
Interesting. Okay. And so but here, too, you think that the Fed can do this without causing a major recession?
Ayesha Tariq 22:45
I do think so. I still think that the Fed could. I mean, it will be a hard landing at the end of the day, but it let’s say it will be a smoother hard landing.
Nathaniel E. Baker 22:57
Okay, cool. All right. Let’s move on now to the listener question segment of the podcast. Like I said, a brand new segment, I’m excited that you are the first person that we have these with, because you have a very good following on the social media. And so that was helpful to generate questions. If your question is right on the air, you win one of these mugs, and will pay for shipping regardless of where you are. And on that. This week. We got some good questions. A bunch of them, but the one that I would like to address actually a couple here. This is from twitter user @GonzaloDLGR. Gonzalo asks, here a couple questions. Here’s one that’s in the that’s in the news. And I’m actually curious also about your views on this Nvidia NVDA. And this AI hype train, as I call it. What do you make of that?
Ayesha Tariq 23:53
Well, they smashed earnings. All right. So look, I think Nvidia is a company is great. I’m not gonna bash the company, honestly, I think they’ve been doing job. But the truth is, they’ve been doing a great job. Look, look at the numbers they’ve put up, right? So you can’t deny that. You can say whatever you want about the AI story, or however they made it in how they got to their, you know, 70% gross margins. You can criticize all of that. But at the end of the day, it’s capitalism. If they can get away with 70% margins, why wouldn’t they and their posting revenues as they said they would so they’re growing at a massive clip. So good on them. Great on them, in fact, right. But the hype that they’ve created, don’t translate well, to everyone. Right? So one thing to remember and I did put out this as a tweet as well that invidious gain is everybody else’s cost. So they are making you know, let’s say the raw material As for this entire AI space, right, but at the same time, that means it’s a cost for the other people. So right now, I think there are two things that we need to understand about AI. First of all, in order for this to be a sustainable, let’s say, you know, journey, we need to see these companies actually invest. And that means costs, capex, you know, money spent, number one. Number two, we don’t know whether AI is proven or not. So there’s, we’re still far, far away from actual intelligence. So we have said this before, as we have the artificial, we don’t have the intelligence. Right. And so I think, you know, there’s the proof will be in the pudding, as they say, and we don’t have that as yet. So, everybody, so the sad part is, what we have done is we have pulled, pulled forward all these earnings for these companies, to this year, we’ve built these companies up to enormous levels. And now we have a situation where we have this handful of companies that are extremely expensive, based on some thing that hasn’t been fully proven yet. But we are paying the price for this already. So in my mind, I think there’s still some ways to go in this. And we definitely need to see how this plays out over the next two to three years. I’m not at all saying that these companies are bad companies, I mean, at least the big one, so Google, Nvidia and all of these. But at the same time, we need to bear in mind that they haven’t proven their worth in terms of AI as yet, but we’re already paying for it.
Nathaniel E. Baker 27:03
The fact that these companies are attracting all these investments, do you think that’s another indicator that the Fed hasn’t done enough yet, in terms of raising rates?
Ayesha Tariq 27:12
Look, where these companies are concerned, The Magnificent Seven, I think it’s very, let’s say, it’s actually goes hand in hand with the feds tightening cycle, because these companies are your safety net companies, right? And it’s like, you know, buying Apple is like buying a bond right now, like a government bond, you know, you know, they’re not gonna fail. So in that respect, I think these companies going up, actually show how scared people are about the Feds tightening cycle. And then they’re kind of hiding out in these solid names. And that’s why these companies have been better. That’s part of the reason why these companies have been bid up so much as well.
Nathaniel E. Baker 27:59
Very interesting. Yeah. Okay. Well, let’s see what happens with Nvidia. And next question also from Gonzalo. He asks here about banks, and I asked you this, because I know you’ve written about this, how to analyze bank stocks around their earnings. Right in between earning seasons right now, I guess the still coupled trickling in from the was it the second quarter? Yeah, second quarter. And that would mean, we’ll have a bit of a waiting period before we get the third quarter earnings, but the banks will be the ones that kick it off, as they always do. And he asked, how do you go about analyzing banks ahead of earnings? And you maybe this is depends on the economic of the state of the economic cycle as well. But yeah, what right now how what what kind of stuff would you look to at the bank earnings?
Ayesha Tariq 28:43
So absolutely, you’re right, some of it does depend on the economic cycle. But I do have a cheat sheet that I put out on Twitter every quarter before earnings, because banks honestly are very different from companies, obviously, the assets or liabilities, the liabilities are acid. So it’s just like opposite, right? So it’s not always easy to look at them. But a few things that I would look at, obviously, is your net interest margin. And this is the top line in terms of how much how much a bank is earning versus their interest costs. Right. So that’s very important. Looking at the expense ratio is very important. And then looking at their capital adequacy is very important. So how much capital these banks actually have because they need to withstand pressures in the economy. And the other thing I would look at now, particularly, is how much provisions they’re putting away. Right. And so that’s provisions for losses. So we need to see whether losses or actual losses are increasing, but also how much the provisions are increasing over the last one year you will see JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs particularly Those who have more consumer banks. So JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, you’ll see their provisions increase far more because what they’re doing is they’re putting aside funds or, let’s say funds in simple terms to withstand those losses that may come. Right. So the more scared they are, the higher their provisioning is. So that’s something to, you know, look at in this environment in particular,
Nathaniel E. Baker 30:31
do you make a do get a lot from the interviews with the CEOs, I tend to find that Jamie Dimon of JP has a lot of pretty interesting things to say usually, and also less hedged than some of the others, although he’s always he does hedge a bit. But yeah, the watch is anybody you watch, in particular, Jamie
Ayesha Tariq 30:49
Dimon. Yeah. So the the interesting thing about listening to him as well as there will always be some analyst coming in and asking him some kind of spicy question. And then, you know, that sets him off. And you really, really get his real ID and his real thoughts. So that’s quite interesting. But to be fair, JPMorgan is a bank that’s everywhere. And it has everything right. So it has corporate banking, investment banking, and consumer banking. So they’re a bank that you would want to listen to, because they cover every sphere of, you know, banks, or banking activities.
Nathaniel E. Baker 31:27
Yeah, and I believe the largest US lender, in absolute terms, perhaps not entirely sure about consumer loans. Yes. Yeah. Right. Okay. This is all very interesting. Aisha. In closing, maybe tell us how our listeners can find out more about you. I mentioned, you’re active on the social media, macro visor.com. You can tell us about that, too. And what you guys offer there? Because I’m interested in that.
Ayesha Tariq 31:51
Sure. So we did. We started my hypervisor about six to seven months ago now. So it’s a pretty new company. But what we do over there is we look at the global macro picture. And obviously, you know, we’re building it as we go through, we’ve just started a dashboard on the global macro scene. So we put out, you know, short term views, long term views, what to look out for, I put out a free daily breakfast bites, which kind of gives us the news and views from around the world. It gives you the calendars, so everything, anything and everything that you need to know about, you know, macro around the world. It’s in there plus we have our longer form thematic research that we do on either certain countries or regions, specific factors, like we did the labor market. We did the housing market. We did China. And then we also put picks, so asset picks who could be stocks could be commodities, what we’re looking at, buy, sell, hold, that kind of thing.
Nathaniel E. Baker 32:57
All right, can I ask if there’s anything you’re particularly bullish about right now?
Ayesha Tariq 33:03
Am I particularly bullish about anything? Yes, I am. So there are certain healthcare names that I’m pretty bullish about still, med tech is a good area. I know. I’ve been talking about it for a while now. But I still think that there is some runway there. For growth.
Nathaniel E. Baker 33:19
There very interesting. Okay, that’s, that’s great. So you can give us a name there. Okay. And then the social media. I’ll put this on the show notes, too.
Ayesha Tariq 33:26
Yeah. So social media. I’m on Twitter. Of course, the handle is @AyeshaTariq, one word. And I’m on LinkedIn as well.
Nathaniel E. Baker 33:35
Cool. Yeah. And yeah. Have you found any uptake in the other social media? Do you use any of those, because I know that Twitter has undergone all these changes.
Ayesha Tariq 33:46
I’ve been using LinkedIn for a while. But I think LinkedIn, I’m seeing ebbs and flows, because, you know, people are going back to work. So things have thinned out a little bit over there. I think more people who are more professional, you know, use LinkedIn. Not to say that professionals don’t use Twitter as well. But I think Twitter is just easier to use. I know, I’ve tried a few applied Instagram, I’ve tried threads. I’ve tried Reddit, Twitter is just the easiest. For me, you know, time is kind of money. So I’d rather spend more time researching and producing than worry about these things.
Nathaniel E. Baker 34:26
Yeah, yeah, that’s been my experience as well. And I have tried out all like you all these other. And it seems a Twitter experience is just not that hard to replicate. They’ve all tried to and it’s all come up a little short in my in my view, which maybe says something about what Elon is sitting on there. But that’s another topic for another day. So yes, with that, we will close. Thank you all for listening. We look forward to having you back again. Aisha and then near future sooner than we did last time, and everyone else will speak to you again next week.